基于双碳战略目标的乘用车动力总成多元化技术路线研究

Research on Diversified Technology Roadmaps for Passenger Car Powertrains Based on DualCarbon Strategic Goals

“碳达峰”与“碳中和”战略目标给乘用车减碳带来巨大挑战,因此制定乘用车减碳技术路线是未来汽车产业可持续发展的战略任务。首先,分析从现在到2060年乘用车新车产量、存量和报废率数据以及电力行业碳排放强度数据。然后,梳理了乘用车不同动力源碳排放数据,建立不同动力源乘用车碳排放分析模型、评价维度和评价指标。最后,分析了单一动力技术减碳敏感性。结果表明,纯电动汽车、插电式混合动力汽车和混合动力汽车技术在快速降低乘用车碳排放、实现“碳达峰”进程中扮演重要角色,碳中性燃料动力和燃料电池汽车技术在实现“碳中和”进程中更具有优势。研究表明,实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”动力总成需要多源化技术路线组合及相应的技术导入窗口期,基于技术中立的从“双积分”到“碳积分”政策法规的转变是实现乘用车“双碳”技术路线的重要保障。

The strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have presented significant challenges for reducing carbon emissions in passenger cars.Formulating technological roadmaps for carbon reduction in passenger cars is a strategic task for the sustainable development of the future automobile industry.Analyzing the data of new car production,stock,and scrap rates until 2060,as well as the carbon emission intensity data of the electric power generation industry.Sorting out the carbon emission data of passenger cars with diversified powertrains,establishing a passenger car carbon emission analysis model for diversified powertrains,evaluation dimensions,and evaluation indices.The study analyzed the decarbonization sensitivity of individual powertrain technologies.The results show that pure Electric Vehicle(EV),Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle(PHEV)and Hybrid Electric Vehicle(HEV)play an important role in rapidly reducing carbon emissions from passenger cars to achieve the carbon peaking process.Carbon-neutral fueled powertrains and Fuel Cell Vehicles(FCVs)are more advantageous for achieving carbon neutrality.The study suggests that achieving powertrain carbon peaking and carbon neutrality requires a combination of diversified technology roadmaps and corresponding technology introduction window periods.Based on technology neutrality,the policy regulation transformation from"CAFC Credits"to"Carbon Credits"is an important step towards realizing the technology roadmaps for reducing carbon emissions in passenger cars.