中国城市全要素生产率测度与要素空间溢出效应分析

Measurement of urban total factor productivity and analysis of spatial spillover effect of factors in China

在合理构建嵌入空间计量模型的CD生产函数基础上,使用2000—2018年中国258个地级及以上城市数据,测度纳入要素空间溢出效应的中国城市全要素生产率,并通过此生产函数模型对中国258个城市和5大城市群的资本和劳动要素空间溢出效应进行分解,探究其辐射带动能力。研究发现:①在时序发展上,中国城市全要素生产率整体略有下降,但近期有上升的趋势。在空间演变上,中国南部和北部城市全要素生产率变化明显,东部和西部城市全要素生产率则保持稳定。②纳入要素空间溢出效应的城市全要素生产率测度结果比未纳入要素空间溢出效应的城市全要素生产率测度结果平均高0.4663,说明要素空间溢出效应对城市全要素生产率有正向促进作用。③在城市层面上,环渤海城市、长三角城市、珠三角城市和国家中心城市要素空间溢出效应较强,中西部城市要素空间溢出效应较弱。在城市群层面上,长三角城市群要素空间溢出效应较高,成渝城市群要素空间溢出效应较低。

The spatial spillover effect of urban factors plays an important role in the high-quality development of urban economy and regional coordinated development in China.Based on the rational construction of CD production function embedded in general nested spatial econometric model,this paper uses the data of 258 cit-ies at prefecture level and above in China from 2000 to 2018 to measure the urban total factor productivity in-corporating spatial spillover effect of factors to represent high-quality development of urban economy in China.At the same time,this paper uses appreciate production function embedded in general nested spatial economet-ric model to decompose the spatial spillover effect of capital and labour factors of specific cities and 5 major urban agglomerations,and explore the radiation driving capacity of specific cities and 5 major urban agglomer-ations to improve current situation of regional coordinated development in China.The results show that:1)In terms of timing development,the overall urban total factor productivity in China has decreased slightly,but there is a gradual rising trend after 2017.In terms of spatial evolution,the total factor productivity in cities in southern and northern China has changed significantly,while the total factor productivity in eastern and west-ern cities remains stable.2)The result of measurement of urban total factor productivity with spatial spillover effect of factors is 0.4663 higher than that of those without spatial spillover effect of factors,indicating that spatial spillover effect of factors has a remarkable positive effect on urban total factor productivity.3)Among the specific cities,the spatial spillover effect of factors of national central cities,and cities in the Bohai Bay,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is strong,while the spatial spillover effect of factors of central and western cities is weak.Among the 5 major urban agglomerations,the spatial spillover effect of factors in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is higher,while that in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is lower.