山东省耕地利用净碳汇变化与耕地利用效益关系研究

Relationship between net carbon sequestration change and cultivated land use benefit of cultivated land use in Shandong Province

本文以粮食主产区山东省为例,运用净碳汇核算模型和库兹涅茨曲线等方法,测算2001―2020年山东省16个地级市耕地利用净碳汇,阐明耕地利用净碳汇时空变化与耕地经济效益及其社会效益的关系。结果表明:①2001―2020年山东省耕地发挥巨大碳汇作用,净碳汇总量呈波动上升态势。2020年,山东省耕地利用净碳汇量增幅达33.052%,已超过全国总量的1/9。②山东省耕地利用净碳汇具有明显的空间非均衡性特征,呈现西南高–东北低的空间格局。仅2020年,净碳汇高值区是低值区的13.743倍。③山东省16个地级市耕地利用净碳汇与单位面积耕地产值之间存在上升–下降–再上升的“N”型库兹涅茨曲线关系。④山东省各地级市耕地利用净碳汇与农村居民人均可支配收入之间呈现显著的倒“U”型库兹涅茨曲线关系。耕地利用净碳汇的时空变化与耕地利用经济效益、耕地利用社会效益之间有显著的响应关系。

Taking Shandong Province as an example,this article uses the net carbon sequestration accounting model and Kuznets Curve and other methods to calculate the net carbon sequestration of cultivated land use in 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2020,and clarifies the relationship between the spatiotemporal changes of net carbon sequestration of cultivated land use and the economic and social benefits of cultivated land.The results show that:1)From 2001 to 2020,cultivated land in Shandong Province played a huge role as a carbon sequestration,and the net carbon sequestration showing a fluctuating upward trend.In 2020,the net carbon sequestration of cultivated land use in Shandong Province increased by 33.052%,which has exceeded one-ninth of the national total.2)The net carbon sequestration of cultivated land use in Shandong Province has exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity characteristics,presenting a spatial pattern of high in southwest and low in northeast.In 2020 alone,the high-value area of net carbon sequestration was 13.743 times that of the low-value area.3)There exists an upward-downward-upward“N”shaped Kuznets curve relationship between the net carbon sequestration of cultivated land use and the output value of cultivated land per unit area in 16 cit-ies in Shandong Province.4)There is a significant inverted“U”shaped Kuznets curve relationship between the net carbon sequestration of cultivated land use and the per capita disposable income of rural residents in 16 cities in Shandong Province.The spatiotemporal changes of net carbon sequestration in cultivated land use have a significant responsive relationship with the economic and social benefits of cultivated land use.