基于多时点双重差分模型探究碳排放交易政策对城市生态福祉的影响

Exploring the Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Policies on Urban Ecological Well-being Based on a Multi Time Point Double Difference Model

碳排放交易政策对中国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的目标具有重要意义。利用2009—2020年中国282个地级及以上城市的面板数据,基于Super-SBM模型构建出城市生态福祉的指标,使用多时点双重差分模型,实证研究了碳排放交易政策的实施对城市生态福祉的影响。最终,得出结论:碳排放交易政策能显著提高城市的生态福祉。同时运用平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验以及替换被解释变量的方法对结论的稳健性进行了检验。提出政府要加大碳排放交易政策的实施范围,企业要改进低碳绿色的生产方式的启示。

The carbon emissions trading policy is an important path for China to achieve its goals of peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality.This article uses panel data from 282 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2009 to 2020,constructs indicators of urban ecological well-being based on the Super SBM model,and uses a multi time point double difference model to empirically study the impact of carbon emissions trading policy implementation on urban ecological well-being.Finally,it can be concluded that carbon emissions trading policies can significantly improve the ecological well-being of cities.The robustness of the conclusion was tested using parallel trend tests,placebo tests,and replacement of the dependent variable.Finally,it is suggested that the government should increase the implementation scope of carbon emission trading policies and enterprises should improve low-carbon and green production methods.