长三角城市群绿色发展空间关联网络演化及影响因素分析

Spatial Correlation Network Evolution and Influencing Factors Analysis of Green Development in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

基于2017—2021年长三角城市群中27个城市的面板数据,运用熵值法和非期望Super-SBM模型测度各市绿色发展效率,利用改进的引力模型和社会网络分析法,探析该空间关联网络的结构特征演化,最后使用ERGM模型实证分析其影响因素.结果显示:①长三角城市群绿色发展水平总体呈上升趋势,但区域差异显著.②空间关联网络总连接数和网络密度连年增长,且空间关联网络日益紧密、复杂.③上海、南京、杭州等城市在关联网络中处于中心位置,能对周边或边缘城市产生溢出效应;马鞍山、铜陵等城市处于网络边缘,与其他城市的互通性较弱.④科技发展水平的差异和城市化水平对空间关联网络的形成具有正向影响,制度、经济发展水平、产业结构和组织的差异有负向影响.

Based on the panel data of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2017 to 2021,the entropy method and non-expected Super-SBM model are used to measure the green development efficiency of each city.The improved gravity model and social network analysis method are used to explore the evolution of the structural characteristics of the spatial correlation network.Finally,ERGM model is used to analyze the influence factors.The results show as follows:①The green development level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations is on the rise in general,but the regional differences are significant.②The total connection number and network density have been increasing year by year,and the spatial correlation network is becoming increasingly close and complex.③Cities such as Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou are at the center of the network and can have spillover effects on the surrounding or peripheral cities,while cities such as Maanshan and Tongling are at the edge of the network and have weak interoperability with other cities.④The difference of science and technology development level and urbanization level has a positive impact on the formation of spatial correlation network,while the difference of system,economic development level,industrial structure and organization has a negative impact.