大食物观下马铃薯产业发展的政策效应研究

The Policy Effects of Potato Industry Development under the Concept of Big Food

在“大食物观”视域下,推进马铃薯产业发展有利于丰富粮食供给来源,优化种植结构,提升粮食产能,提高粮食安全保障水平。本文构建包括统计数据和空间数据的市域面板数据集,运用双重差分等事件研究方法,对马铃薯产业发展的政策效应进行实证分析,进一步剖析内在作用机制、异质性和次生效应。研究发现:①产业发展政策显著促进了马铃薯单产和总产量的提升,体现出效率改进的特点,符合高质量发展要求;②异质性分析表明,在山区、东北华北作区和非粮食主产区的政策效应更为显著,符合马铃薯的作物优势;③机制分析表明,产业发展政策能够提升农业生产机械化水平,符合现代农业的发展方向;④产业发展政策并未对三大主粮产生不利影响,符合政策设计初衷。优化战略布局、提高机械化水平和加强品种推广等措施能够进一步强化马铃薯产业发展政策的正向效应。

From the perspective of the"Big Food Concept",promoting the development of the potato industry is conducive to enriching the sources of food supply,optimizing the planting structure,improving grain production capacity,and enhancing food security.This article constructs a city-level panel dataset including statistical data and spatial data,and uses event study methods such as Difference-in-Differences to conduct empirical analysis on the policy effects of potato industry development,further analyzing the internal mechanism,heterogeneity,and secondary effects.The results show that:①Industrial development policies significantly promote the improvement of potato yield and total output,reflecting the characteristics of efficiency improvement and meeting the requirements of high-quality development.②Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects are more significant in mountainous areas,northeastern and northern China,and non-major grain producing areas,which is in line with the advantages of potatoes as a crop.③Mechanism analysis shows that policies can improve the level of agricultural mechanization,which is in line with the direction of modern agriculture development.④Policies have not had a negative impact on the three major staple crops,which is in line with the original design intention.By optimizing industrial layout,improving mechanization level,and strengthening variety promotion,it will strengthen the positive effects of potato industry development policies.