基于LMDI的长江经济带用水量时空差异的驱动效应

Driving effect of spatial-temporal difference in water consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on LMDI

为量化长江经济带用水量演变的驱动因素,分析了研发因素对用水总量的影响,对对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)法分解框架进行了改进,将用水量分解为用水强度效应、产业结构效应、研发效率效应、研发规模效应、城镇化效应和人口规模效应。结果表明:对长江经济带而言,研发规模、城镇化、人口规模是促进用水总量增加的因素,其中研发规模的促增效应最大;用水强度、研发效率、产业结构是抑制用水总量增加的因素;产业用水强度下降对用水总量的促减效应先后来源于第一、二产业;第一产业占GDP比例下降是产业结构调整抑制用水总量增加的主要来源。对长江经济带各省市而言,用水强度、研发效率、产业结构是促进其用水总量下降的因素;研发规模、城镇化是促进用水总量增加的因素,人口规模对用水总量的促增效应和促减效应具有差异性;除上海和重庆,其他省市用水强度下降对用水总量增加的抑制作用主要来源于第一、二产业;产业结构调整对用水总量增加的抑制作用主要来源于第一产业占GDP比例下降。

In order to quantify the driving factors of the evolution of total water consumption in the provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the article analyzes the impact of R&D factors on total water consumption and improves the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)decomposition framework to decompose the evolution of total water consumption into water intensity effect,industrial structure effect,R&D efficiency effect,R&D scale effect,urbanization effect and population scale effect.The results show that for the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the R&D scale,urbanization and population scale are the factors contributing to the increase in total water consumption,with the R&D scale having the greatest contribution to the increase.The water intensity,R&D efficiency and industrial structure are the factors inhibiting the increase in total water consumption.The reduction in industry water intensity contributes to the decrease in total water consumption from the primary and secondary industries in turn.The decline in the primary industry’s proportion of GDP is the main source of the industrial restructuring that inhibits the increase in total water consumption.For the provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,water intensity,R&D efficiency and industrial structure are the factors contributing to the decline in total water consumption.The R&D scale and urbanization are the main and secondary factors contributing to the increase in total water consumption,and there are differences in the contribution of population scale to both incremental effect and decremental effect on total water consumption.With the exception of Shanghai and Chongqing,the inhibiting effect of declining water intensity on the increase in total water consumption in the other provinces was mainly from the primary and secondary industries.The inhibiting effect of industrial restructuring on the increase in total water consumption is mainly due to the decline in the proportion of primary industry.