多子是否多福?——子女数量对中国老年人抑郁情绪的影响

More Children,More Blessings?The Impact of the Number of Children on Depression in the Chinese Elderly

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2018年数据,采用IV-Probit模型定量分析子女数量与老年人抑郁情绪之间的因果关系,以及子女情感支持对两者关系的中介作用。基准Probit回归结果表明,子女数量显著正向预测老年人的抑郁情绪;运用工具变量处理内生性问题后,这一影响不存在。机制分析结果表明,子女情感支持可完全中介子女数量与老年人抑郁情绪之间的关系。研究结果显示,中国老年人抑郁情绪受子女关系质量(情感支持)而非子女数量的影响,子女数量增多可能导致责任分散效应;在人口老龄化和少子化的时代背景下,应发扬我国传统的孝道文化,鼓励子女常回家看看,给予老年人更多的陪伴和情感支持。

Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey(CHARLS)in 2018,the IV-Probit model was used to quantitatively analyze the causal relationship between the number of children and depression in the elderly,as well as the mediating role of emotional support from children in the relationship between the two.The benchmark Probit regression results indicate that the number of children significantly positively predicts depression in the elderly;After using instrumental variables to address endogeneity issues,this effect does not exist.The mechanism analysis results indicate that emotional support from children can fully mediate the relationship between the number of children and depression in the elderly.The research results suggest that the depressive mood of elderly people in China is influenced by the quality of their child relationships(emotional support)rather than the number of children,and an increase in the number of children may lead to a dispersion of responsibility effect.In the context of the dual interweaving of the aging population and fewer children,we should promote China’s excellent filial piety culture,encourage children to go home frequently and provide more companionship and emotional support to the elderly.