承德市接坝地区土地利用变化及驱动因素分析

Analysis of Land Use Change and Driving Factors in Transitional Region from Plateau to Plain of Chengde

为了探究承德市接坝区土地利用时空变化特征及原因,本文以2000、2010、2019年三个时期土地利用数据以及各类社会经济数据为基础,通过土地利用动态度、变化轨迹法、核密度分析法、地理探测器等方法分析了该区近20年土地利用变化时空特征及驱动因素。结果表明接坝区主要土地类型为耕地、林地、草地。近20 a耕地、草地面积分别减少了230.889 km^(2)和2099.745 km^(2),林地、建设用地面积分别增加2240.749 km^(2)和86.857 km^(2)。地类转移总体表现为耕地、草地的相互转化、草地对林地的转移和耕地、草地两种地类对建设用地的转移;所选两个时期中前一时期的地类变化更具方向性,后一时期变化更剧烈、范围更广;人口、高程、社会消费品零售总额、GDP等四种因子是承德市接坝区20 a间主要地类变化的主要驱动因子。

In order to explore the spatial-temporal change characteristics and reasons of land use types in the plateau to plain of Chengde,an important ecological protection and water conservation area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the land use data(resolution of 30 m)in three periods of 2000,2010 and 2019 and various socio-economic data were applied with land use dynamic degree,change track method,nuclear density analysis method,center of gravity migration model.The spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of land use type change in the plateau to plain of Chengde in the past 20 years were analyzed by means of geographic detectors and other methods.The result showed that the main land types in the area are cultivated land(15%),forest land(54%)and grassland(30%).In the past 20 years,the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased by 230.889 km^(2) and 2099.745 km^(2) respectively,and the area of forest land and construction land increased by 2240.749 km^(2) and 86.857 km^(2) respectively.The transfer of land types in the dam area of Chengde City is generally reflected in the mutual transformation of cultivated land and grassland,the transfer of grassland to forest land and the transfer of cultivated land and grassland to construction land.In the two selected periods,the land type change in the previous period is more directional,and the latter period is more intense and broader.Among the eight factors selected,population,elevation,total retail sales of social consumer goods,and GDP are the main driving factors for the change of major land types in the plateau to plain of Chengde in the past 20 years.