基于LMDI的安徽省煤炭行业碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission of Coal Industry in Anhui Province based on LMDI

首先,文章利用碳排放因子法测算2011—2022年安徽省煤炭行业CO_(2)排放量并按照时间序列对其变化趋势进行分析;其次,在原始的Kaya等式基础上结合安徽省煤炭行业的特点引入能源结构和能源强度因素;最后,运用LMDI模型对其进行定量分析,量化相关影响因素的贡献值。结果表明:能源结构、能源强度对碳排放有明显促进作用,经济发展和行业规模对碳排放抑制作用显著。基于此,建议从推动采用清洁发电技术、加大煤炭行业科技创新力度、优化煤炭行业内部结构等方面入手,助力安徽省煤炭行业碳减排。

Firstly,the CO_(2) emissions of coal industry in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2022 were calculated by using carbon emission factor method,and the change trend was analyzed according to time series.Secondly,based on the original Kaya equation and the characteristics of coal industry in Anhui province,the energy structure and energy intensity factors were introduced.Finally,the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used for quantitative analysis to quantify the contribution value of related influencing factors.The results show that energy structure and energy intensity have significant promoting effects on carbon emissions,while economic development and industry scale have significant inhibiting effects on carbon emissions.Based on this,it is suggested to promote the use of clean power generation technology,increase scientific and technological innovation in the coal industry,optimize the internal structure of the coal industry and other aspects to help Anhui Province's coal industry in reducing carbon emissions.