气候变化背景下黑河流域“三生”空间转型对生态环境质量的影响

Impacts of Production-Living-Ecological Space Transformation in the Heihe River Basin on Ecological Environment Quality in the Context of Climate Change

选择中国西北干旱区黑河流域为研究对象,以ArcGIS10.6和Mathematica 8.0为研究平台,分析1990—2020年“三生”空间转型的时空格局,结合植被指数(NDVI)和土壤盐度指数(SI)分析生态环境质量的时空变化,通过建立混合效应模型与归因分析模型,分离气候变化背景下“三生”空间显性与隐性转型对生态环境质量变化的贡献,得到如下结果。1)黑河流域强弱生态空间各占28.12%和65%,生活和生产空间仅占6.88%;30年间生活和生产空间各增长0.32%和0.96%,强弱生态空间之间转换频繁(72.8%)。生态环境质量变化以2000年为转折点,由下降变为持续好转趋势。2)“三生”空间显性转型和气候变化对生态环境质量变化的贡献分别为39.8%和36.6%,降水对生产与生活空间的生态环境有主要贡献,气温则对生态空间环境质量存在非线性影响,隐性转型对生态环境变化的贡献率为23.6%。3)“三生”空间转型对生态环境的空间异质性影响更强,而气候变化对生态环境的时间异质性影响更强,中游地区生态环境质量同时受显性与隐性转型影响,下游则主要受隐性转型影响。研究结果可为黑河流域的国土空间优化和生态系统管理提供科学依据。

Choosing the Heihe River Basin in the arid northwest of China as the study area,using ArcGIS 10.6 and Mathematica 8.0 as research platforms,the paper analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of the transformation of the production-living-ecological spaces from 1990 to 2020.Combining the vegetation index(NDVI)and salinity index(SI),we investigate the spatiotemporal changes of eco-environmental quality and separate the contributions of explicit and implicit transformation of the production-living-ecological spaces to changes in eco-environmental quality by establishing a mixed effects model and attribution analysis model under the background of climate change.The results show that 1)the strong and weak ecological spaces in the Heihe River Basin account for 28.12%and 65%respectively,while the living and production space accounts for only 6.88%.The living and production spaces have each increased by 0.32%and 0.96%over the past 30 years,and frequent transformations occur between strong and weak ecological spaces(72.8%).The change in eco-environmental quality has transitioned from a decline to a sustained improvement trend since 2000.2)The contributions of explicit transformation of the production-living-ecological spaces and climate change to eco-environmental quality are 39.8%and 36.6%.Precipitation has the main contribution to the ecological environment of production and living spaces,while temperature has a nonlinear impact on the eco-environmental quality of ecological spaces.The contribution rate of implicit transformation to ecological environment changes is 23.6%.3)The transformation of the three spatial sectors has a stronger spatial heterogeneity effect on ecological environment,while the temporal heterogeneity effect of climate change is stronger.The eco-environmental quality in the middle reaches of the river basin is simultaneously affected by explicit and implicit transformation,while the downstream is mainly affected by implicit transformation.The results provide a reliable theoretical basis for optimizing the land spatial development and ecosystem management in the Heihe River Basin.