供应链视角下我国战略性新兴产业进入海外市场策略和时机演化博弈分析

An Evolutional Game Analysis of the Strategies and Timing of China's Strategic Emerging Industries Entering Overseas Markets From a Supply Chain Perspective

在经济发展转型关键期,战略性新兴产业进军海外市场是我国战略性新兴产业突破价值链低端环节和提高国际市场话语权的重要措施。本文基于战略性新兴产业发展的引领性,运用演化博弈方法,从供应链视角构建我国战略性新兴产业企业进入海外市场的演化博弈模型,分析影响战略性新兴产业上游本土制造商选择何种赶超策略,以及下游海外销售商进入时机的关键因素进行探讨。研究结果表明:技术研发成本、技术研发风险和率先进入风险成本,对演化博弈系统趋向“市场导向,跟随进入”策略;而跟随进入成本和技术创新补贴促成博弈系统趋向于“技术导向,率先进入”策略。其中创新补贴要达到一定强度,才能加快战略性新兴产业供应链上下游企业向“技术导向,率先进入”策略方向快速演化。

At the critical period of economic development and transformation,entering overseas market is a crucial measure for China’s strategic emerging industries to break through low-end value chain and enhance their discourse power in international market.Based on the leading role of strategic emerging industries,this paper constructs an evolutionary game model from a supply chain perspective to analyze the strategies for Chinese enterprises in these industries to enter overseas market.The model evaluates the key factors influencing upstream local manufacturers’choices of catch-up strategies and the timing for downstream overseas distributors to enter the market.The research results indicate that the cost of technology research and development(R&D),the risks associated with R&D,and the risk costs of being a first-mover,push the evolutionary game system towards a“market-oriented,follower entry”strategy.Conversely,the costs of follower entry and technology innovation subsidies drive the system towards a“technology-oriented,first-mover entry”strategy.Notably,innovation subsidies need to reach a certain intensity in order to accelerate the evolutionary shift of upstream and downstream enterprises in the strategic emerging industry supply chain towards the"technology-oriented,first to enter"strategy direction.