湖北省区域碳中和能力评价研究

Evaluating the capacity of regional carbon neutrality in Hubei Province

为从区域尺度研究净碳排放变化特征及碳中和能力并从区域尺度上实现“碳中和”目标,借鉴《IPCC温室气体排放》《省级温室气体清单编制指南》给定的方法、碳密度法等方法,对湖北省碳排放量、碳汇量及净碳排放量(CO_(2-e))进行了评价,并针对净碳排放量的变化趋势分析湖北省区域碳中和能力。结果显示:2000-2020年,湖北省区域碳汇总量为264178万t,历年碳汇量呈现较为明显的上升趋势,增长幅度约135.21%,年均增长约6.76%;湖北省2000-2020年区域碳排放总量为910331万t。历年碳排放总量的变化趋势可分为2个阶段,2000-2010年为第一阶段,湖北省碳排放总量呈现显著增加的趋势;2011-2020年为第二阶段,湖北省碳排放总量呈现波动下降的趋势;第一阶段湖北省净碳排放量呈上升趋势,Z_(M-K)统计量通过了显著性检验,具有统计学意义;第二阶段湖北省净碳排放量呈现下降趋势,但Z_(M-K)统计量未能通过显著性检验,即湖北省净碳排放量在第二阶段有下降趋势,但这种趋势并不具有统计学意义。研究结果表明,当前湖北省的生态系统碳汇量与碳排放量仍有巨大差距,净碳排放量的变化仍存在一定的不确定性,应当持续深入进行碳减排,优化生态系统碳汇功能,并大力发展碳捕获技术与相关产业。

It is of great theoretical significance to study the changing characteristics of net carbon emissions and the capacity of regional carbon neutrality for accelerating the transformation of social and economic development and realizing the goal of carbon neutrality.In this article,the carbon emissions,carbon sinks and net carbon emissions in Hubei Province were evaluated with the methods given in IPCC Guide-lines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories,carbon density method and other methods.The changing trend of net carbon emissions was studied to evaluate the capacity of regional carbon neutrality in Hubei Province.The results showed that the total amount of regional carbon sinks in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 was 264.178 million tons,showing a significant upward trend over the years,with an increase rate of about 135.21%and an average annual increase rate of about 6.76%.The total carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 was 910.331 million tons.The changing trend of total carbon emissions over the years was divided into two stages including the total carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2020 showing a trend of significant increase and a trend of fluctuating downward,respectively.The net carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2010 had an upward trend,and the Z_(M-K) statistic passed the significance test with statistical significance.The net carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2020 had a downward trend,but the Z_(M-K) statistic failed the significance test,indicating that the net carbon emissions in Hubei Province had a downward trend in the second stage,but this trend was not statistically significant.It is indicated that there is still a huge gap between the carbon sink and carbon emissions of the ecosystem in Hubei Province,and there is still some uncertainty in the changes of net carbon emissions.Carbon reduction should be continued.The carbon sink function of the ecosystem should be optimized,and carbon capture technology and related industries vigorously developed.