降碳减污视角下山东省农业绿色发展效率的时空格局与影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Green Development Efficiency in Shandong Province under the Perspective of Reduction of Pollution and Carbon Emissions

基于降碳减污视角构建农业绿色发展效率评价指标体系,综合采用Super-EBM模型、核密度估计、Global Malmquist-Luenberger指数及面板Tobit模型分析2001—2021年山东省农业绿色发展效率时空格局、演变特征和影响因素。结果显示:①研究期内山东省农业绿色发展综合效率和纯技术效率呈“W”形演变轨迹,规模效率平稳上升,农业绿色发展效率由规模驱动转为由规模、技术共同驱动;②山东省农业绿色发展效率空间格局由低水平交错分布向高水平均衡分布演变,纯技术效率的高水平均衡分布特征趋于显著,规模效率仍表现出较明显的空间非均衡性,形成“东西高、中部低”的带状空间格局;③山东省农业绿色全要素生产率缓慢上升,缘于技术进步和纯技术效率提高,其中以后者贡献为主,而规模效率具有一定抑制作用;④居民富裕程度、数字经济对农业绿色发展综合效率和纯技术效率具有正向作用,产业结构优化、城镇化水平提高对农业绿色发展规模效率具有负向作用。

An evaluation index system for agricultural green development efficiency was constructed from the perspective of re-duction of pollution and carbon emissions.The Super-EBM model,Kernel density estimation model,Global Malmquist-Luen-berger index and the panel Tobit model were comprehensively used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern,evolution trend and in-fluencing factors of agricultural green development efficiency in Shandong from 2001 to 2021.It is found as follows.From 2001 to 2021,the comprehensive efficiency and pure technical efficiency of agricultural green development in Shandong showed a W-shaped evolution trajectory,and the scale efficiency had risen steadily,and the efficiency of agricultural green development had changed from scale driven mode to scale and technology co-driven mode.@The overall efficiency of agricultural green de-velopment in Shandong had improved,and the spatial pattern of agricultural green development efficiency evolved from low-level staggered distribution to high-level balanced distribution.The pure technical efficiency tended to be high level equilibrium distri-bution,and the scale efficiency showed a significant spatial imbalance,forming a belt spatial pattern of"high in the east and west,low in the middle".③Thegreen total factor productivity ofagriculturein Shandongwasrisingslowly,and thetechnologi-cal progress and pure technical efficiency improvement were the important sources for its growth.The pure technical efficiency has become the main contributor,while scale efficiency has a certain inhibitory effect on the growth of total factor productivity in most regions.@Residents'affluence and digital economy have a positive impact on the comprehensive efficiency and pure technical efficiency of agricultural green development,while the optimization of industrial structure and improvement of urbani-zation level may have a negative impact on the improvement of scale efficiency of agricultural green development.