中国旅游产业链发展格局演变及空间效应研究

Pattern Evolution and Spatial Effect of Tourism Industrial Chain Development in China

产业链现代化是建设现代化产业体系及助推中国式现代化进程的重要抓手,全面揭示旅游产业链发展现状及其影响因素对于提升旅游产业链现代化水平具有实际意义。该文以2001-2019年中国30个省域为研究对象,构建涵盖旅游供需链、企业链、空间链、价值链的旅游产业链发展水平评价指标体系,利用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数及其分解、探索性空间数据分析等方法对中国旅游产业链发展的时序演变规律、空间差异特征及空间关联格局进行分析,并运用空间杜宾模型探讨影响中国旅游产业链发展的主要因素及其空间效应。研究发现:(1)中国旅游产业链发展水平呈平稳提升态势,表现出由东部地区向中部、东北及西部地区递减的分布态势。(2)中国旅游产业链发展的总体区域差异呈波动缩小趋势,区域间差异是其主要来源,且东部与西部地区旅游产业链发展的区域间差异最大;东部地区旅游产业链发展的区域内差异最大,西部、东北地区次之,中部地区最小。(3)中国旅游产业链发展具有空间相关性和空间集聚特征,供给、需求、创新、政策等层面因素是影响中国旅游产业链发展的主要因素。其中,旅游资源禀赋、旅游人力资本、互联网、产业融合发展与对外开放水平有利于推进本地区旅游产业链发展,旅游需求总量、旅游需求结构与对外开放水平能通过正向空间溢出效应带动邻近地区旅游产业链发展。

The modernization of tourism industrial chain plays an important role in building a modern industrial system,which is vital to boosting the Chinese modernization process.Therefore,it is of practical significance to comprehensively reveal the devel-opment status of tourism industrial chain and its influencing factors for improving the modernization level of tourism industrial chain.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2001 to 2019,this paper constructed an evaluation index system for the development of tourism industrial chain,which covered four dimensions,namely tourism supply and demand chain,tourism en-terprise chain,tourism space chain and tourism value chain.The entropy method,Kernel density estimation,Dagum Gini coeffi-cient and exploratory spatial data analysis were adopted to evaluate the characteristics of temporal evolution,spatial difference and spatial correlation of China's tourism industrial chain.And then,the spatial Durbin model was used to explore the main fac-tors affecting the development of China's tourism industrial chain and its spatial effect.It is found as follows.The overall de-velopment level of China's tourism industrial chain shows a steady upward trend and a spatial pattern of gradient decline from the eastern region to the central,northeast and western regions.@The overall regional differences in the development of China's tourism industrial chain are showing a fluctuating and narrowing trend.Interregional differences are the main source of overall regional differences,and the interregional differences between the eastern and western regions are higher than those in other re-gions.The intra-regional differences are decreasing from the eastern region to the western,northeastern,and central regions.③The development of China's tourism industrial chain has significant spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration characteristics.Supply,demand,innovation,policy and other factors are the main factors affecting the development of China's tourism industrial chain.Among them,the endowment of tourism resources,tourism human capital,Internet,the level of industrial integration and opening to the outside world are conducive to improving the development of tourism industrial chain,while the total amount of tourism demand,the structure of tourism demand and the level of opening to the outside world can drive the development of the tourism industrial chain in neighboring regions through the radiation of positive spatial spillover effect.