兰州市最低气温及气温日较差对消化系统疾病的影响

Effects of Minimum Temperature and Daily Temperature Range on Risk of Digestive Disease in Lanzhou,China

为研究兰州市日最低气温(T_(min))与气温日较差(DTR)对当地消化系统疾病入院的影响,利用Spearman相关系数定性分析兰州市2016年3月至2021年5月消化道病患病人数与同期气象要素关系,通过广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型定量分析T_(min)、DTR对患病人数的影响。结果表明:(1)夏半年T_(min)适中偏低(6℃~11℃)时相关疾病风险升高(T_(min)=10.3℃,RR=1.215,95%CI:1.118~1.319,RR表示相对危险度,95%CI表示95%置信区间),且累积滞后风险突出、高于该阶段极端低温影响;极低T_(min)与偏大DTR共存时,综合效应可显著增加入院风险。(2)冬半年低温(T_(min)<-10℃)仅产生弱影响;T_(min)偏高(>5℃)时对入院当日危险度的影响较大(T_(min)=9℃,RR=1.28,95%CI:1.11~1.48),且与剧烈的日内温差(DTR>20℃)共存时入院风险最高,上述情形多见于秋冬过渡时期。简言之,年内不同阶段气温对消化系统疾病的影响差异明显,气温变幅大亦可增加消化道脆弱性。

This study aimed to estimate the effects of daily minimum temperature(T_(min))and Diurnal temperature range(DTR)on local hospital admissions for digestive diseases in Lanzhou City,China.The spearman correlation coefficient was employed to analyze the association between the number of patients with digestive tract diseases and meteorological factors from March 2016 to May 2021,and the effects of T_(min) and DTR on morbidity were studied quantitatively by using Generalized Additive Model(GAM)and Distributed Lag Non-linear Model(DLNM).The results showed that:(1)The diseases risk increased when T_(min) was moderately low(6℃-11℃)in the summer half-year(T_(min)=10.3℃,RR=1.215,95%CI:1.118-1.319,RR represents a relative risk,95%CI represents 95%confidence interval),and the cumulative lag risk was prominent,even higher than the extremely low-temperature effect at this stage.The combined effects of low T_(min) and large DTR added to the risk of admission significantly.(2)Low-temperature(T_(min)<-10℃)had only a weak effect in the winter half-year.High T_(min)(>5℃)had a considerable impact on the risk of onset on lag 0 d(T_(min)=9℃,RR=1.28,95%CI:1.11-1.48),and cooperated with great intra-day temperature variation(DTR>20℃),which was more common in the transitional period from the autumn to winter.In short,the influence of temperature on digestive system diseases at different stages of the year was obviously different,and large diurnal temper-ature variations could also enlarge digestive tract vulnerability.