呼和浩特市新城区城市热岛效应趋势预测模型构建

Construction of Trend Prediction Model of Urban Heat Island Effect in New Urban Areas of Hohhot City

随着城市化进程的不断推进,对生态环境和人类健康带来裂变式影响的热岛效应成为当今社会备受关注的热点问题。如何对热岛效应进行预测研究成为颇受重视的学术议题。通过以内蒙古呼和浩特市新城区为研究对象,运用2013-2020年7期landsat8遥感影像数据对城市地表温度进行反演研究,通过分析影响因子与地表温度空间变化之间的映射关系和所占权重,构建适用于呼和浩特市城区的热岛效应预测模型,并在呼和浩特市赛罕区进行验证,进一步验证所构建模型的准确性。通过计算趋势预测方程,表明新城区的热岛效应会继续加重,但增长速度将逐渐趋于平缓。该预测模型一方面可以预测城市地表温度的变化趋势,另一方面可以为制定预防和减缓热岛效应加剧的措施提供理论依据。

With the continuous advancement of urbanization,the heat island effect(UHI)has become a hot spot in to-day’s society.How to predict the heat island effect has become a very important academic topic.This study takes the new urban area of Hohhot,Inner Mongolia as the research object,and uses Landsat8 remote sensing image data of 7 periods from 2013 to 2020 to retrieve the urban land surface temperature.By analyzing the mapping relationship and the weight between the influencing factors and the spatial change of land surface temperature,the heat island effect prediction model suitable for the urban area of Hohhot is built.The model is verified in Saihan District of Hohhot,and the accuracy of the model is further verified.By calculating the trend prediction equation,it is shown that the heat island effect of new urban areas will continue to increase,but the growth rate will gradually be flat.On the one hand,the prediction model can predict the change trend of urban land surface temperature,and on the other hand,it can provide theoretical basis for formulating measures to prevent and mitigate the aggravation of heat island effect.