基于随机Petri网的民机审定试飞实施流程建模与分析

Modeling and Analysis of Implementation Process for Civil Aircraft Certification Test Flight Based on Stochastic Petri Net

审定试飞是民用飞机获取型号合格证书的重要活动,具有高成本、高风险的特点。研究审定试飞的实施流程有利于推动试飞工作有序进行,进而缩短试飞周期及降低试飞成本。目前对试飞流程的研究局限于流程描述与定性分析,缺乏对试飞流程的形式化建模与性能分析,无法检验流程中的关键环节。为解决上述问题,文中研究了审定试飞3个阶段的实施流程,并利用随机Petri网构建了该流程的仿真模型;通过建立与该模型同构的马尔可夫链,对实施流程进行了性能分析,识别出了流程中耗时较多的关键环节,进而分析了关键环节的实施速率对流程平均运行时间的影响。最后通过一个案例验证了模型与方法的可行性。结果表明,制造符合性检查环节与试飞数据处理环节是流程中耗时较多的关键环节,应将其作为流程优化的重点,同时提升上述两个关键环节的实施速率相比提高单环节速率,成本更低且流程运行效率提升幅度更大。

Certification test flight is an important activity for civil aircraft to obtain a type certificate,characterized by high cost and high risk.Studying the implementation process of certification test flight is conducive to promoting the orderly conduct of test flight,thereby reducing the test flight cycle and cost.Currently,research on the test flight process is limited to process description and qualitative analysis,lacking formal modeling and performance analysis of it,which hinders the examination of key links in the process.In order to solve the above problems,the implementation process in the three stages of certification test flight is studied,and the simulation model of it is constructed by using stochastic Petri ne(SPN).By establishing a Markov chain isomorphic to the model,the performance analysis of the implementation process is conducted to identify the time-consuming key links in the process.Furthermore,the impact of the implementation rates of key links on the average running time of the process is analyzed.Finally,the feasibility of the model and method is validated through a case study.The results show that the manufacturing compliance check and test flight data processing are the time-consuming key links in the process and should be the focus of process optimization.Compared to improving the speed of individual link,enhancing the implementation rates of these two key links at the same time has lower cost and greater improvement in process efficiency.