基于SEM-CM模型的城市轨道交通运营安全评价研究

城市轨道交通是公共交通中的重要组成部分,确保运营安全平稳有序是城市轨道交通行业的重要职责。针对目前研究城市轨道交通运营安全的诸多模型中,存在的主观性较强,缺乏客观数据支撑问题,引入结构方程(SEM)结合云模型(CM),构建城市轨道交通运营安全评价模型,从设施设备、管理层面、人为因素、自然环境4个方面构建评价指标体系,通过SPSS、Amos软件运用结构方程对各项指标数据进行信效度检验及适配度分析,挖掘出数据内部的重要特征后得出相应权重。然后,计算出各指标的云模型数字特征,使用Matlab软件绘制出云图,进行结果对比分析。以贵阳市城市轨道交通为例,得出最后结论表明该模型能更好消除主观性,与实例的实际运营情况相符。

Urban rail transit is an important part of public transport,and it is an important responsibility of urban rail transit industry to ensure safe and orderly operation.In view of the strong subjectivity and lack of objective data support in many models studying the operation safety of urban rail transit,the structural equation model(SEM)combined with cloud model(CM)is introduced to construct the evaluation model of urban rail transit operation safety,and the evaluation index system is constructed from four aspects:facilities and equipment,management,human factors and natural environment.Through SPSS,Amos software use structural equation to test the reliability and validity of each index data and analyze the fitness,dig out the important characteristics of the data and get the corresponding weight.Then,calculate the digital characteristics of the cloud model of each index,use the Matlab software to draw the cloud picture,and compare the results.Taking Guiyang urban rail transit as an example,the final conclusion shows that the model can better eliminate subjectivity,which is consistent with the actual operation of the example.