框定依赖偏差下农户林业碳汇项目行为决策的影响因素分析——基于福建省福州市永泰县的调研数据

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of of Peasant Households' Behavioral Decision-making in Forestry Carbon Sequestration Projects Under the Framing Dependence Deviation——Based on the Survey Data of Yongtai County,Fuzhou City,Fujian Province

【目标/意义】探讨框定依赖偏差对农户林业碳汇项目行为决策的影响,并分析正负向框架下农户林业碳汇项目行为决策影响因素的差异性,以减少农户的非理性行为,并促进其更理性地参与林业碳汇项目。【方法/过程】以框定依赖偏差理论为基础,对2022年7月在永泰县乡村进行现场访谈及问卷调研所获得的409份样本数据,运用卡方检验法分析农户在正面和负面框架下的行为决策,并建立二元Logit模型,从农户的行为态度、主观规范及知觉行为控制3个方面,分析正面和负面框架对林业碳汇项目行为决策的影响差异。【结果/结论】卡方检验结果表明,面临正向框定的农户相较于面临负向框定的农户更倾向于参与林业碳汇项目。二元Logit模型结果表明,农户在考虑是否参与林业碳汇项目时,其对林业碳汇的态度、周围的人是否参与碳汇、是否参与碳汇培训、家庭总收入及农业劳动力等因素的影响效应均不同程度地受信息的不同呈现形式所干扰,仅宜林地面积的影响效应不受信息的不同呈现形式的干扰。基于研究结论提出倡导农户理性参与、积极态度与风险意识并重、通过培训抑制跟风行为、优化风险分担与收益分配机制、优化劳动力结构等5点建议。

【Objective/Meaning】By discussing the impact of framing dependence deviation on the behavioral decision-making of peasant households in the forestry carbon sequestration projects,and analyzing the differences in the influencing factors of farmers' behavioral decision-making in the forestry carbon sequestration projects under the positive and negative frameworks,it would help to reduce the irrational behaviors of peasant households and promote farmers to participate in the forestry carbon sequestration projects more rationally.【Methods/Procedures】Based on the framing dependence deviation theory,409 sample data obtained from the field interviews and questionnaire surveys in the rural areas of Yongtai County in July of 2022 were used to analyze the behavioral decision-making of peasant households under the positive and negative frameworks by means of the chi-square verification method.The binary logit model was established to analyze the differences in the impact of positive and negative frameworks on the behavioral decision-making of forestry carbon sequestration projects from three aspects,including the behavioral attitudes of peasant households,subjective norms and perceived behavioral control.【Results/Conclusions】The chi-square test results showed that the peasant households facing the positive framing were more likely to participate in the forestry carbon sink projects than the the peasant households facing the negative framing.The results of the binary logit model showed that:when the farmers considered whether to participate in the forestry carbon sequestration projects,the influence effects of the factors such as their attitudes towards the forestry carbon sink,whether people around them participated in the carbon sequestration,whether they should participate in the training of carbon sequestration,household total income and agricultural labor force were all disturbed by the different presentation forms of information in various degrees,and only the effect of the area of suitable forest land was not disturbewd by the different presentation forms of information.Based on the conclusions of the study,five suggestions were put forward,including advocating the rational participation of farmers,paying equal attention to positive attitude and risk awareness,training to curb the following-up behavior,optimizing the mechanism of risk sharing and income distribution,and optimizing the labor structure.