城市商业银行设立对资本要素市场整合的影响:促进还是抑制?--基于准自然实验的分析

The Impact of the Establishment of City Commercial Banks on Capital Factor Market Integration:Promotion or Inhibition?A Quasi-natural Experiment in China

以城市商业银行的设立为准自然实验,基于1998—2013年中国地级市数据与中国工业企业数据库数据,运用渐进双重差分方法系统考察了地方金融发展对资本要素市场整合的影响。研究表明,城商行的设立显著促进了资本要素市场整合。机制分析表明,城商行的设立通过促进银行业竞争和增加信贷供给推动资本要素市场整合,而政府干预会在一定程度上削弱促进银行业竞争的效应,影响信贷资源流向。对城商行异地扩张和兼并的进一步分析表明,城商行的异地分行设立会促进地区资本要素市场整合,但城商行异地分行数量的扩张又会阻碍资本要素市场整合,而城商行兼并对资本要素市场整合则没有起到显著的促进作用。本文研究结论能为我国优化地方金融体系,促进资本要素市场整合提供理论依据和直观证据。

Promoting the market-oriented reform of factors and building a national unified large market are the inherent re-quirements for the construction of the new development pattern at present,among which the integration of capital factor market is an important content for establishing a national unified large market and an important support for promoting domestic circula-tion.Although the existing literature has explored the causes and influencing mechanisms of market segmentation in China in many aspects,the academia has failed to pay enough attention to how the development of local financial institutions affects the integration of capital factor markets.Therefore,this paper breaks through the previous research paradigm of market segmenta-tion,and puts the local financial development and capital factor market integration into a unified framework to study the impact of the establishment of city commercial banks on capital factor market integration,which has important theoretical and practical significance for how to optimize the local financial system in China to promote the integration of capital factor market and build a unified large market.Based on the data of cities in China and the database of Chinese industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2013,this paper takes the establishment of city commercial banks as a quasi-natural experiment,and systematically examines the relationship between the establishment of city commercial banks and the integration of capital factor markets by using the progressive double differ-ence method,and focuses on analyzing the channel mechanism of their functions.The empirical results show that the establish-ment of city commercial banks significantly promotes the integration of capital factor market,and the above conclusions are still valid in a series of robustness tests,such as parallel trend test,multi-process time effect estimation,replacement of important variables,exclusion of policy interference,listed companies and provincial capital cities.The analysis of impact mechanism shows that the establishment of city commercial banks can increase the proportion of small and medium-sized banks,promote banking competition,improve regional banking competition level,promote financial resources to flow from inefficient depart-ments to efficient departments,and stimulate financial market vitality.At the same time,due to the high financing flexibility of city commercial banks,it can increase the opportunities for enterprises to obtain loans,promote the free flow of capital factors,and then promote the integration of capital factor market.However,in this process,local governments often use their influence on city commercial banks to directly or indirectly intervene in the business transactions and credit allocation of city commercial banks,which will weaken the competitive effect brought by the establishment of city commercial banks.At the same time,for the purpose of developing regional economy,local governments may also influence the flow direction of credit funds through ad-ministrative means,making it easier for local enterprises to obtain loans,which will further aggravate the mismatch of credit re-sources and affect the integration of capital factor market.Further analysis of the establishment and merger of city commercial banks in different places shows that the establishment of city commercial banks in different places will promote the cross-re-gional flow of capital factors,which is conducive to the integration of capital factor market,but the expansion of the number of city commercial banks in different places will aggravate the imbalance of capital factor allocation between regions and hinder the integration of capital factor market.In addition,the merger of city commercial banks does not play a significant role in pro-moting the integration of capital factor market.By studying the influence of the establishment of city commercial banks on the integration of capital factor market,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on promoting the construction of a unified national large market from the aspects of encouraging,supporting and guiding the development of small and medium-sized financial institutions such as city commercial banks,optimizing the equity structure of city commercial banks and reducing government intervention,and suggests that the risks brought by the expansion of regional financial institutions should not be neglected in the process of promoting regional fi-nancial development.