长三角城镇化对PM_(2.5)污染影响因素分析

Influencing factors of urbanization on PM_(2.5) in the Yangtze River delta

基于2004—2018年长三角41个城市的PM_(2.5)及社会经济数据,首先采用熵值法构建经济、人口、土地、生态城镇化评价体系,并运用趋势分析法探究PM_(2.5)演变趋势,其次通过地理探测器对PM_(2.5)影响因素进行研究。结果表明:(1)2004—2018年,江苏城镇化水平较高的城市多聚集于苏南,浙江城镇化水平较高的城市多集中于浙北,安徽城镇化水平普遍较低;南京、杭州等核心城市带动周边发展。(2)2004—2008年A类(明显增加)分布上海、皖北、江苏大多数城市,B类(略有增加或先减后增)多数在浙江;2009—2013年A类完全消除,B类仅淮北,C类(稳定)、D类(略有减少或先增后减)以皖北、浙南为主;2014—2018年均为E类(明显减少)。(3)经济规模对PM_(2.5)污染影响最大,经济结构次之,交互模式以双因子增强为主。土地扩增、绿化覆盖率等对PM_(2.5)污染有显著影响。

Based on the PM_(2.5) and socio-economic data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River delta from 2004 to 2018,the economy,population,land and ecological urbanization were constructed by using the entropy method.The trend analysis method was used to explore the evolution of PM_(2.5).The influencing factors of PM_(2.5) were investigated by geographic detectors.The results show that from 2004 to 2018,most of the cities with high urbanization level in Jiangsu were concentrated in southern Jiangsu,Zhejiang concentrated in northern Zhejiang,and that the urbanization level of Anhui was lower.Core cities such as Nanjing and Hangzhou lead the surrounding development.From 2004 to 2008,Category A(significant increase)was distributed in Shanghai,northern Anhui and Jiangsu,and Category B(slightly increased or decreased first and then increased)was mostly distributed in Zhejiang.From 2009 to 2013,Category A was completely eliminated,Category B only in Huaibei,Category C(stable)and Category D(slightly decreased or increased and then decreased)mainly in northern Anhui and southern Zhejiang.From 2014 to 2018,all were Category E(significant decrease).Economic scale has the greatest impact on PM_(2.5) pollution,followed by economic structure,and the interaction mode is mainly two-factor enhancement.Land expansion and green coverage have a significant impact on PM_(2.5) pollution.