数农融合发展对农业韧性的影响

Impact of Digital Economy-agriculture Integration on Agricultural Resilience

数字经济与农业融合发展改变了传统农业低值低效的发展模式,而面对气候、市场等外部风险威胁,数农融合抵御不确定性冲击的能力尚未可知。本文以2010—2021年中国30个省份数据为样本,对数农融合发展水平进行全面评估,并构建农业韧性的多维度量化标准,借助双向固定效应模型、系统广义矩估计模型、三步法分析模型、空间杜宾模型从静态和动态双视角剖析数农融合发展对农业韧性的赋能效果与作用机制。研究结果显示,数农融合发展在静态和动态视角下均对农业韧性存在正向影响,短期内促进适应性和抵抗性,长期内对预防性、抵抗性和适应性贡献显著。在粮食主产区、高数字经济区域,数农融合发展的赋能效果更明显。传导机制方面,数农融合对农业韧性的赋能效果受农业技术进步、农业产业集聚和农村经济增长的影响。数农融合发展不仅对本地区农业韧性提升有积极作用,而且对周边地区农业韧性存在空间溢出效应。本文的研究可以为强化农业韧性、保障粮食安全、建设农业现代化强国的政策制定提供经验依据。

The integration of digital economy and agriculture revolutionizes traditional agriculture’s low-value and inefficient model.This transformation is the key to promoting high-quality agricultural development.Therefore,exploring the link between the digital economy-agriculture integration and agricultural resilience holds theoretical and practical value for effective risk response and steady production growth.To reveal the promoting effect and potential mechanism of the digital economy-agriculture integration on agricultural resilience,this paper selects provincial data from 2010 to 2021 as samples.It measures the digital economy-agriculture integration level in China and evaluates agricultural resilience.Using two-way fixed effects and SYS-GMM models,it explores the short-and long-term impacts of the digital economy-agriculture integration on agricultural resilience and discusses the effects on three sub-dimensions.Moreover,it conducts heterogeneity analysis based on different agricultural functions and digital economy levels.Finally,it tests the impact mechanisms,including the mediation and the spatial Dubin effect.The findings are as follows.First,from both static and dynamic perspectives,the digital economy-agriculture integration has a positive impact on agricultural resilience.Overall,it plays a favorable role in agricultural resilience and exhibits a certain degree of path dependency.From the perspective of sub-dimensions,it enhances agricultural resistance and adaptability in the short term.However,it facilitates prevention,resistance,and adaptability in the long term.Second,the enabling effect of this integration is more evident in major grain-producing areas and regions characterized by a high-level digital economy.Third,this integration enhances agricultural resilience by promoting technological progress,industrial aggregation,and rural economic development.Finally,agricultural resilience is influenced by the local digital economy-agriculture integration and spatial spillovers from other regions.Therefore,it is suggested to continually improve the perfection and matching of the integration infrastructure,create a favorable integration environment,and apply multi-link technology to support agriculture to withstand the impact.The marginal contributions lie in three aspects.First,this paper scientifically constructs evaluation indicators for the digital economy-agriculture integration in China,establishes an agricultural resilience evaluation system,and reasonably assesses the levels of the integration and agricultural resilience.Second,it empirically analyzes the promoting effect and mechanism of the digital economy-agriculture integration on agricultural resilience with multiple models.Third,it discusses the different resource endowments,providing tailored references for promoting the digital economy-agriculture integration and strengthening agricultural modernization.The research can provide a solid basis for policy-making to strengthen agricultural resilience,ensure food security,and build a modern agricultural country.