数字金融、双环节联动与货币政策利率渠道传导

Digital Finance,Double-Link Interaction and Transmission of Monetary Policy Interest Rate Channels

通过构建CGE模型,本文提出了数字金融影响货币政策利率渠道的“两大环节”“三个机理”的观点。其中,“两大环节”指传导要经历短期利率影响长期利率,长期利率影响企业投资决策两大环节;“三个机理”指数字金融通过影响利率预期期限结构、企业投资对利率的敏感度及企业的信贷配给状况,进而作用于货币政策利率渠道的三个机制。研究发现:一是数字金融通过“两大环节”强化了货币政策的利率渠道传导效果;二是数字金融显著促进了利率期限结构预期假说的成立,显著减弱了金融市场摩擦程度。进一步分析发现:相对于传统金融而言,数字金融对利率渠道传导具有独立的效应,说明数字金融对降低金融市场摩擦具有独立功能,但数字金融的不同特征对其作用的发挥显现出明显的异质性。根据研究结论,本文提出数字技术和市场化制度改革需协调推进等政策建议,为实现“十四五”规划提出的健全货币政策利率渠道传导机制提供了经验参考。

This article introduces a new perspective on how digital finance impacts the monetary policy interest rate channel by constructing a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model.It highlights"two major stages and three mechanisms"in this process.The"two major stages"refer to the transmission through"short-term interest rates to long-term interestrates"and through"long-term interest rates to corporate investment,"while the"three mechanisms"eencompass the transmission dynamics stemming from digital finance altering the interest rate expectation term structure,the sensitivity of corporate investment to interest rates,and the conditions of credit allocation to corporations.The study finds that,firstly,digital finance strengthens the effect of the monetary policy interest rate channel through these"two major stages".Secondly,digital finance significantly facilitates the establishment of the interest rate expectation term structure and considerably reduces financial market frictions.Further analysis shows that,compared to traditional finance,digital finance indeed has an independent effect on the interest rate channel,indicating that digital finance has a unique function in reducing financial market frictions.However,this effect displays significant heterogeneity across different dimensions of digital finance indicators.This research provides the suggestions that expanding the scope for incremental innovation in current monetary policy through the coordinated advancement of new financial technologies and market-oriented institutional reforms.