中国工业行业出口比较优势与境外投资者跨境股票基金配置

Comparative Export Advantage of China's Industrial Sector and Cross-Border Equity Fund Allocation of Foreign Investors

为检验中国工业行业出口比较优势变化对境外投资者跨境股票基金配置的影响,本文基于2007—2021年境外投资者对中国各工业行业的股票基金配置权重数据进行实证分析,发现无论从各工业行业出口交货值占比这一“量”的角度还是从各工业行业在全球价值链中地位攀升这一“质”的角度衡量其比较优势变化,更具比较优势的行业均能够吸引境外投资者提高跨境股票基金配置权重。各工业行业的比较优势变化能够发挥信号作用,影响投资者的行业投资收益预期与行业关注度,进而影响投资者的股票基金配置行为;中国金融发展水平的提高和法治环境的改善提高了跨境资本配置效率,全球金融风险的上升将抑制跨境资本配置,境外投资者对中国股票市场的投资具有较强的套汇动机。基于此,本文提出推动科技创新、加快金融市场建设以及推进金融高水平开放等建议。

In the process of building a"dual circulation"development pattern,foreign trade and financial opening play a crucial role.The overall development of foreign trade can facilitate promote capital inflow.Consequently,what impact will structural changes in the proportion of exports across various industries have on a country's foreign trade?Based on the allocation weight data of foreign equity funds to China's industrial industries and the proportion of export delivery value of China's industrial industries from January 2007 to August 2021,this paper explores the impact of changes in the export comparative advantage of China's industrial sectors on the allocation of cross-border equity funds by foreign investors.The study finds that with the enhancement of the comparative advantage of exports in a particular industrial sector,it wll influence investors'investment income expectations and industry focus,prompting foreign investors to increase the allocation weight of cross-border equity funds in this industry.The development of China's financial market and the improvement of the legal environment are expected to mitigate financial frictions and attract foreign investors to allocate cross-border equity funds more effectively.However,in the short term,rising global financial risks will hinder cross-border investment by foreign investors.As a result,they may increase their allocation to cross-border equity funds in China,primarily driven by arbitrage motives.This paper provides a new perspective and empirical evidence for the study of the driving factors of cross-border capital flows,refines the research on the impact of foreign trade development on cross-border capital flows,and enriches the research on the allocation of cross-border equity funds in China's stock market.