投资冲击对劳动力市场就业与真实工资的动态影响

Dynamic Response of Investment Shock to Employment and Real Wages in Labor Market

构建包含消费和投资部门的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型并设定了各部门名义粘性,通过标准的贝叶斯估计方法,考察投资冲击对劳动力市场就业及工资波动的动态响应及主要驱动来源。模型结果显示:(1)投资边际效率冲击能够产生显著的扩张性经济效应,促进劳动力市场就业增加和工资增长。两部门内技术冲击对劳动力市场的影响则存在显著差异。消费部门技术冲击对劳动力市场存在显著的扩张效应,而投资部门技术冲击则对总量及部门就业产生明显的抑制作用,但可促进部门工资增长。(2)短期内影响就业波动的最主要因素是投资边际效率冲击,而在长期中总技术冲击起了重要作用。部门工资波动的主要驱动来源为总工资加成冲击。金融危机后,投资边际效率冲击对劳动就业波动的贡献逐步减弱,但对消费部门工资的影响显著增强。(3)模型中投资部门的引入及粘性机制的设定,对模型拟合中国经济数据、解释劳动力市场运行特征及波动具有重要作用。

A two-sector NK-DSGE model including the consumption and investment sectors is constructed,and the nominal stickiness of each sector is set respectively.Through the standard Bayesian estimation method,the dynamic response of investment shocks to the employment and wage fluctuations in the labor market is investigated.The following conclusions can be drawn.First,the marginal efficiency impact of investment can produce a significant expansionary economic effect and promote the increase of employment and wage in the labor market.There are significant differences between the two sectors in the impact of technology shock on labor market.The technological shock in the consumption sector has a significant expansion effect on the labor market,while the technological shock in the investment sector has a significant inhibition effect on the total amount and sector employment of the sector,but can promote the growth of sector wages.Second,in the short term,the most important factor affecting employment fluctuation is the marginal efficiency shock of investment,while in the long term,the total technological shock plays an important role.The main driving source of departmental wage fluctuation is the total wage mark-up shock.After the financial crisis,the contribution of investment marginal efficiency shock to the fluctuation of labor and employment has gradually weakened,but its impact on the wages of the consumption sector has significantly increased.Third,the introduction of the investment sector and the stickiness mechanism in the model play an important role in fitting China’s economic data and explaining the fluctuations of the labor market.