宏观审慎监管、信贷结构优化与风险缓释效应

Macro-prudential Supervision,Credit Structure Optimization and Risk Mitigation Effect

本文构建包含金融摩擦和企业异质性的宏观经济模型,系统考察不同宏观审慎政策的信贷结构优化效应和金融风险缓释效应。研究发现:第一,宏观审慎货币政策应在传统货币政策规则的基础上盯住资本资产价格,而宏观审慎监管政策应盯住产出缺口和信贷量;第二,宏观审慎政策的介入可有效削弱金融供给冲击导致的资源错配问题、改善中小企业“融资难、融资贵”,同时可有效缓解金融风险冲击造成的经济紧缩现象、避免金融风险积聚,相较于宏观审慎货币政策,宏观审慎监管政策可更好地发挥逆周期调控和金融稳定作用;第三,宏观审慎监管政策的逆周期调控效果会随着国有企业占比的提高而加强,进而有效纠正金融资源错配问题。本文研究顺应了货币政策和宏观审慎“双支柱”调控框架的政策方针,为健全金融监管体系、实现金融资源“精准滴灌”具有一定的借鉴意义。

In recent years,the problems in China's financial field have become increasingly obvious,mainly manifested as the imbalance of financial supply structure and the intensification of financial market risks.Based on the financial accelerator model embedded with firm heterogeneity and macro-prudential policies,this paper conducts signal source identification and numerical simulation,and examines the credit structure optimization effect and financial risk mitigation effect of different macro-prudential policies from static and dynamic dimensions respectively.The research findings are as follows:First,macro-prudential monetary policy should focus on capital asset prices on the basis of traditional monetary policy rules,and macro-prudential regulatory policy should focus on output gap and credit volume.In addition,the effect of welfare loss improvement is most obvious when the two regulatory policy combinations are implemented.Second,the intervention of macro-prudential policies can effectively weaken the resource mismatch caused by financial supply shocks,and at the same time effectively alleviate the economic contraction caused by financial risk shocks and avoid the accumulation of financial risks.Among them,macro-prudential regulatory policies can play a better role in counter-cyclical regulation and financial stability.Third,with the adjustment of economic structure,the allocation of financial resources among enterprises and the regulation effect of macro-prudential regulatory policies are dynamic changes.Under the impact of technology,the expansion effect of state-owned enterprises'capital will gradually strengthen with the increase of the proportion of enterprises,which will further increase the squeeze on the financial resources of efficient enterprises.The counter-cyclical regulation effect of regulatory policies will be strengthened with the increase of the proportion of state-owned enterprises,thus correcting the problem of resource misallocation.Compared with the existing studies,this paper introduces the firm heterogeneity into the financial accelerator mechanism and builds a DSGE model that considers the factors such as government implicit guarantee,financial risk impact and macro-prudential policies,so as to effectively explore the policy effectiveness of macro-prudential policies in optimizing the financial supply structure and explore the optimal macro-prudential policies from the perspective of risk impact.This study conforms to the policy guidelines of the“dual pillar”regulation framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential,and has certain reference significance for improving the financial supervision system and realizing the“precise drip irrigation”of financial resources.