新形势下中国油气进口安全面临的挑战及应对建议

Challenges and responses to China's oil and gas import security under the new situation

近年来,特别是乌克兰危机爆发以来,国际地缘政治局势急剧变化持续冲击油气市场,中东对全球石油市场的影响上升,美俄石油贸易流向出现变化;全球天然气市场正经历由非稳态向稳态转变的亚平衡阶段,美国加大天然气出口,俄罗斯天然气出口重心开始由欧洲转向亚洲市场。目前中国石油进口来源多元化得到明显提升,但储备能力尚不足,在战争等极端情况下存在断供风险;国际天然气市场尚处于亚平衡状态,供应稳定性较弱,而国内天然气基础设施建设滞后、储备能力不足,安全风险尤为突出,在短时冲击下存在断供或价格飙升风险。针对中国油气进口安全面临的问题,提出了保障国家能源安全的建议:一是加大勘探开发力度,二是选择差异化对外合作战略,三是优化进口油气资源结构,四是建好用好储备设施。

In recent years, especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine issue, the drastic changes in the international geopolitical situation continued to impact the oil and gas market, the Middle East's influence on the global oil market rose, and the United States and Russia's oil trade flow changes. The global natural gas market is experiencing a sub-equilibrium stage from the non-steady situation to the steady situation, the United States increased the export of natural gas, Russia's gas export focus began to shift from Europe to Asian markets. At present, the diversification of China's oil import sources has been greatly improved,but the reserve capacity is still insufficient, and there is a risk of supply cuts in extreme situations such as war. The international natural gas market is still in a situation of sub-equilibrium with weak supply stability, while the domestic natural gas infrastructure is lagging behind, the reserve capacity is insufficient, and the security risk is particularly prominent, which may cause is a risk of supply cuts or price spikes under short-term shocks. In view of the problems faced by China's oil and gas import security,the paper puts forward such suggestions to ensure national energy security as increasing exploration and development efforts,choosing differentiated foreign cooperation strategies, optimizing the structure of imported oil and gas resources, and building and using reserve facilities well.