复苏难解行业失衡之困——2023年世界和中国石化行业综述及2024年展望

Review of global and China petrochemical industry in 2023 and outlook for 2024

2023年,全球石化行业需求依旧低迷不振,众多头部企业开启战略收缩;通胀高企和投资不足,抑制了下游石化产品消费恢复。中国石化行业表现不及预期,出口和房地产成拖累;供应侧压力高涨,企业主动降负和停车检修情况增加;C2和C3亏损严重,拖累全行业表现。2024年,地缘风险为全球经济和需求向好的预期再度蒙上阴影,补库存和购买力提升带来的消费复苏,难以消化连续数年的产能扩张;短暂的新增产能放缓,也无法让企业出清低效产能的步伐减慢。国内石化行业同样在不平衡的复苏中艰难前行,在产业链分化加剧、路线盈利落差加大及行业转型的矛盾与纠结中艰难调整,未来几年将以更缓慢的步伐走出困境。

In 2023, global petrochemical industry demand remained subdued and many leading companies began to their strategical contraction. High inflation and under-investment inhibited the recovery of downstream petrochemical product consumption. China's petrochemical industry did not perform as well as expected with exports and property sectors drags. Under the high pressure of the supply side, enterprises took the initiative to reduce loads and increase maintenance stops. Severe losses of C2 and C3 affect the performance of the whole industry. In 2024, geopolitical risks will cast a shadow over the global economy and the expectation of positive demand again and the recovery in consumption due to inventory replenishment and purchasing power enhancement will make it difficult for enterprises to absorb the consecutive years of production capacity expansion. The slowdown in new production capacity also cannot reduce the pace of enterprises to clear out inefficient production capacity. The domestic petrochemical industry is difficult to move forward and adjust in the recovery with its imbalance, reflecting further differentiation of the industry chain, the path to increase the gap between profitability, and contradictions and entanglements of industry transformation. It will get out of trouble with a slower pace in the next few years.