江苏省县域耕地利用生态效率时空动态性及驱动机制

Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Use Eco-efficiency at County Scale in Jiangsu Province

探究耕地利用生态效率时空动态性及驱动机制,对于全面把握地区农业可持续发展进程、及时优化调整政策制度,推动经济、资源、环境协调发展具有重大意义。运用超效率SBM-Undesirable模型、重心转移、ESTDA模型、分位数模型及时空跃迁嵌套探究江苏省77个县域单元耕地利用生态效率时空动态演变及驱动机制。研究表明:(1)江苏省县域耕地利用生态效率重心呈微偏东南后转西北方向的演变态势,高值区大多分布于“西北-东南”方向。(2)空间上以正向趋同关系为主导,“高高-低低”空间集聚显著。(3)耕地利用生态效率呈现空间协同与竞争并存的格局特征,且空间协同主导局部空间格局演变。时空演变路径依赖特征较为明显,存在一定的转移惰性和路径锁定。(4)各因素对不同水平生态效率的影响程度存在差异。种植结构-经营规模-产业结构高分位驱动、种植结构-经营规模低分位驱动、城乡差距-农业基础设施高分位制约、农业基础设施低分位制约等4种时空跃迁驱动/制约模式背后各自蕴含不同驱动机理。未来亟需以县域为单位构建区域耕地利用协同机制,统筹考虑多因素的综合影响,制定多要素协同联动的优化策略。同时因地制宜制定差异化的效率优化方案,为不同水平生态效率的提升提供针对性的建议指导。

Exploring the spatio-temporal transition and driving mechanism of the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use is of great significance for sustainableregional agriculturaldevelopment.Itcan also helpoptimize the policy system,and promotethe coordinated development of economy,resources and environment.In this paper,SuperSBM-Undesirable model,barycenter shift,ESTDA model,quantile model and spatio-temporal transition nesting were used to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of cultivated land use eco-efficiency in 77 counties of Jiangsu province.The results showed that:(1)the center of gravity of eco-efficiency of cultivated land use shifted slightly to southeast and then to northwest.The high value area were mostly distributed in the“northwest-southeast”direction,while the low value area were mostly distributed in the“northeast-southwest”direction.(2)The eco-efficiency of cultivated land use showed a positive spatial correlation,with a significant spatial agglomeration of“high-high-low-low”.(3)The eco-efficiency of cultivated land use was characterized by both spatial synergy and competition,with spatial synergy leading the evolution of local spatial pattern.The path dependence of spatio-temporal evolution was obvious.There was a certain transfer inertia and path lock.(4)There were differences in the effects of various factors on different levels of eco-efficiency.Behind the four driving/restricting modes of spatio-temporal transition,there were different driving mechanismsincluding high quantile of planting structure-operating scale-industrial structure,low quantile of planting structure-operating scale,restricted by the high quantile of urban-rural gap-infrastructure,and restricted by the low quantile of agricultural infrastructure.In the future,it is urgent to build a collaborative mechanism for regional cultivated land use at the county level.It is also important to consider the comprehensive influence of multiple factors,and to formulate optimization strategies for collaborative linkage of multiple factors.In addition,differentiated efficiency optimization schemes should be formulated according to local conditions to provide targeted suggestions and guidance for the improvement of different levels of ecological efficiency.