耦合风险概率与生态损失的襄十随神区域生态风险评价研究

Ecological Risk Assessment in“Xiangyang-Shiyan-Suizhou-Shennongjia”based on Risk Probability and Ecological Loss Model

开展区域生态风险评价,是平衡生态环境和社会经济发展之间矛盾的必要措施。以“襄十随神”区域为研究对象,通过构建“风险=概率×损失度”评价模型对近20年来的生态风险时空演变特征进行了系统诊断。结果表明:(1)充分考虑研究区外部多源胁迫与内部系统损失,构建的14个因子的评价指标体系能够有效表征生态风险来源和生态系统损失;(2)研究区20年来生态风险概率增长8.65%,以Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级为主,生态风险概率较低但呈上升趋势;(3)研究区以低级生态系统损失区为主,20年来生态系统损失增长6.66%,尤其是中部及东部地区Ⅳ、Ⅴ级生态系统损失占比持续上升,分布面积逐渐增大;(4)耦合风险概率与生态损失的综合生态风险结果显示,研究区以低生态风险为主,20年来综合生态风险下降了1.90%,等级变化上呈现“以不变区为主,核心城区外围升高、边缘山区降低”的空间格局,等级变化面积达10006.36 km^(2),风险等级升高区不断扩张。研究结果对完善综合生态风险评价体系、防控区域生态风险等具有理论和实践价值。

Under the background of"green waters and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains",ecological risk assessment is an important way to protect and monitor the ecological environment.In order to balance the contradiction between ecological environment and socio-economic development,regional ecological risk assessment is a necessary measure a scientific basis for formulating sustainable development policies.his paperarea of"Xiangyang-Shiyan-Suizhou-Shenlongjia"as the research object,based on the classic"risk=probability×loss degree"evaluation model and the 6km×6km grid scale,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of ecological risks diagnosed over the past 20 years.The results indicate that:1)Considering external multiple source stress and internal system losses,this paper establishe an indicator system of 14 factors from three dimensions of nature,culture,and landscape to reflect the sources of urban ecological risks and ecosystem losses;2)The probability of ecological risk increased by 8.65%.The probability of ecological risk s relatively low,and mainly at levelsⅠandⅡ,showing an upward trend;3)The research area s mainly composed of low level ecosystem loss areas,with an increase of 6.66%in ecosystem loss,especially in the central and eastern regions where the proportion ofⅣ,Ⅴlevel ecosystem loss continue to increase and the distribution area gradually increase;4)From the perspective of comprehensive ecological risks,the research area s mainly characterized by low ecological risk,and the comprehensive ecological risk decreased by 1.90%.The spatial pattern of level change show a"constant zone as the main area,with an increase in the periphery of the core urban area and a decrease in the peripheral mountainous areas".The area of level change reache 10006.36 km2,and the areas with increased risk levels continue to expand.This research can provide theoretical and methodological references for the evaluation and restoration of ecological risk,which is in line with the new perspective of regional ecological risk evaluation in other similar areas.