黄河流域高质量发展系统均衡性及影响因素多视角分析

Analysis of Equilibrium Characteristics and Influencing Factors of High⁃Quality Development in the Yellow River Basin from a Multi⁃Dimensional Perspective

为扩展高质量发展研究的广度和深度、进一步完善高质量发展测度体系和研究范式,并为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略全面深化实施提供参考,基于新发展理念构建高质量发展系统评价指标体系,把创新发展、协调发展、绿色发展、开放发展、共享发展作为高质量发展的5个子系统,以2010—2020年为研究期、以黄河沿线62个地级市为样本市,采用熵权法测算5个子系统发展指数和高质量发展系统综合指数,进而采用均衡熵模型测算高质量发展各子系统的均衡水平,运用核密度估计方法分析黄河流域高质量发展系统均衡水平的动态演化情况,采用地理探测器探测黄河流域高质量发展系统均衡水平的影响因素。结果表明:1)黄河流域高质量发展各子系统均衡水平和比较优势向好转变,多数地级市高质量发展系统均衡性较好、少数地级市存在系统性失衡问题,黄河中游地区高质量发展系统均衡水平最高、下游地区高质量发展系统均衡水平最低;2)黄河流域高质量发展系统综合水平和各子系统均衡水平呈现错配状态,中上游大部分城市高质量发展系统综合水平较低而各子系统均衡水平较高即低水平均衡,下游大部分城市高质量发展系统综合水平较高而各子系统均衡水平较低即高水平失衡;3)黄河流域整体及上、中、下游地区高质量发展系统均衡水平存在显著的空间差异性,同时都存在“俱乐部收敛”现象,各区域内的极化现象逐渐弱化;4)创新发展、协调发展、绿色发展、开放发展、共享发展对黄河流域高质量发展系统均衡水平的驱动作用具有空间分异性,且两两交互影响具有增强效应。提出了黄河流域“量”“质”双优发展等建议。

Expanding the breadth and depth of research on high-quality development,further improving the measurement system and research paradigm for high-quality development,and providing reference for the comprehensive and deepening implementation of the major national strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,building a high-quality development system evalua-tion index system based on the new development concept,and making innovative development,coordinated development,green development,open development,and shared development as the five sub-systems of high-quality development,using the period from 2010 to 2020 as the research period and 62 prefecture level cities along the Yellow River as sample cities,the entropy weight method was used to calculate the de-velopment index of 5 sub-systems and the comprehensive index of high-quality development systems.Then,the equilibrium level of each sub-system of high-quality development was measured by the equilibrium entropy model,the dynamic evolution of the equilibrium level of the high-quality development system in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed by the kernel density estimation method,and the influencing factors of the equilibrium level of the high-quality development system in the Yellow River Basin were detected by the geographic detector.The re-sults show that a)the balance level and comparative advantages of various sub-systems of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin are shifting towards a positive direction.Most prefecture level cities have good balance in high-quality development systems,while a few pre-fecture level cities have systemic imbalances.The middle reaches of the Yellow River have the highest balance level of high-quality develop-ment systems,while the downstream areas have the lowest balance level of high-quality development systems.b)The comprehensive level of high-quality development system and the equilibrium level of the sub-systems in the Yellow River Basin are mismatched.The comprehensive level of high-quality development system in most cities in the middle and upper reaches is relatively lower,while the equilibrium level of each sub-system is relatively higher,indicating low-level equilibrium.The comprehensive level of high-quality development system in most cities in the downstream is relatively higher,while the equilibrium level of each sub-system is relatively lower,indicating high-level imbalance.c)There are significant spatial differences in the overall balance level of high-quality development systems in the Yellow River Basin,as well as in the upper,middle,and lower reaches.At the same time,there is a phenomenon of“club convergence”in all regions,and the polariza-tion phenomenon within each region is gradually weakening.d)The driving effects of innovative development,coordinated development,green development,open development,and shared development on the balanced level of high-quality development system in the Yellow River Basin have spatial differentiation,and the mutual influence between the two has an enhancing effect.Suggestions have been put forward for the dual development of quantity and quality in the Yellow River Basin.