黄河流域收缩城市“三生”功能耦合协调分析

The coupling and coordination of"production-living-ecological"functions in shrinking cities in the Yellow River Basin

利用第五、第六和第七次全国人口普查资料对黄河流域的收缩城市进行识别并测算其收缩强度,借助多指标综合评价法、耦合协调度模型分析2010年、2015年和2020年收缩城市的“三生”功能大小及耦合协调度,进一步运用随机森林模型探究其关键影响因素。结果表明:在黄河流域内90个地级市(州、盟)中,持续收缩型城市有27个,阶段收缩型城市有9个,潜在收缩型城市有29个,城市收缩现象显著;不同区域收缩城市的“三生”功能水平差异显著,其中生产和生活功能整体呈上升态势;“三生”功能的耦合协调度呈现由勉强协调向初级协调发展的特征,中、下游区域协调度优于上游,经济社会的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高有助于“三生”功能的耦合协调发展。

On the basis of the fifth,sixth and seventh national population census data,we identify the shrinking cities in the Yellow River Basin and measure their shrinkage intensity.The multi-index comprehensive evaluation method and the coupling coordination model were used to analyze the size of the"production-living-ecological"functions and the coupling coordination scheduling of shrinking cities in 2010,2015 and 2020.We also use the random forest model to explore its key influencing factors.The results show that among the 90 prefecture-level cities(stages and leagues)in the Yellow River Basin,there are 27 continuous contracting cities,9 stage contracting cities and 29 potential contracting cities.The phenomenon of urban contraction is significant.During the study period,the production and living functions of the shrinking cities in the Basin were on the rise as a whole,and the level of"production-living-ecological"functions in different regions was significantly different.The coupling coordination degree of the shrinking cities'"production-living-ecological"functions was characterized by the development from barely coordinated to primary coordinated development.The coordination degree of the middle and lower reaches was better than that of the upper reaches.The development of economic society and the improvement of people's living standards contributed to the coupling and coordinated development of the"production-living-ecological"functions.