京津冀地区2015~2020年臭氧浓度时空分布特征及其健康效益评估

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Ozone Concentration and Health Benefit Assessment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2015 to 2020

为评估京津冀地区臭氧(O_(3))时空分布特征及其产生的健康效益,采用土地利用回归模型和随机森林模型,模拟2015~2020年京津冀地区O_(3)浓度并在此基础上估算归因于O_(3)暴露导致的全因死亡、心血管系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的人数及相应的健康损失经济价值.结果表明,京津冀地区O_(3)浓度、归因于O_(3)暴露的死亡人数和健康损失经济价值在2015~2020年间的变化趋势相似,整体呈现波动性上升趋势;O_(3)浓度较高的地区以及变化较大的地区集中于中部和西南部,北部地区浓度较低且变化程度较小;2015~2020年归因于O_(3)暴露的死亡人数空间分布与O_(3)浓度的分布相似;2015~2020年,13个市的全因死亡和心血管系统疾病死亡健康损失经济价值均增加,4个市的呼吸系统疾病死亡健康损失经济价值下降.研究结果提示京津冀地区O_(3)污染防治重点关注地区不尽相同,综合考虑建议以北京市、天津市、衡水市和邢台市作为京津冀地区O_(3)污染防治重点地区,根据重点地区类型和特点采取差异化防治措施改善O_(3)浓度、减少归因于O_(3)暴露的死亡人数和健康损失经济价值.

To evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of ambient ozone(O_(3))in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)Region,the land use regression(LUR)model and random forest(RF)model were used to simulate the ambient O_(3) concentration from 2015 to 2020.Meanwhile,all-cause,cardiovascular,and respiratory mortalities as well as economic losses attributed to O_(3)were also estimated.The results showed that upward trends with fluctuation were observed for ambient O_(3) concentration,mortalities,and economic losses attributable to O_(3) exposure in the BTH Region from 2015 to 2020.The areas with high O_(3) concentration and great changes were concentrated in the central and southwestern regions,whereas the concentration in the northern region was low,and the change degree was small.The spatial distribution of the mortalities was also consistent with the spatial distribution of O_(3) concentration.From 2015 to 2020,the economic losses regarding all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality increased in 13 cities of the BTH Region,whereas the economic losses of respiratory mortality decreased in 4 cities in the BTH Region.The results indicated that the priority areas for O_(3) control were not uniform.Specifically,Beijing,Tianjin,Hengshui,and Xingtai were vital areas for O_(3) pollution control in the BTH Region.Differentiated control measures should be adopted based on the characteristics of these target areas to decline O_(3) concentration and reduce health impacts and economic losses associated with O_(3) exposure.