中国—美国—东盟三方海洋议题竞合中的东盟角色

ASEAN's Role in Three Party Maritime Coopetition between China,the U.S.and ASEAN

大国竞争格局为小国提供了倡导和设置区域议程的契机与政策空间。通过发展优势领域、建立关系网络、搭建制度平台以及塑造特定规范,东盟能够确保自身利益和首要事项得到优先考虑,并将竞争中的大国的议题偏好纳入其制度框架内。在“印太”海洋议题演进中,中美在支持“东盟中心地位”的基础上,分别以中国“一带一路”伙伴关系网络和美国“印太”海洋联盟体系为基础,围绕海洋议题主导权展开竞合互动。一方面,中美碍于竞争压力,为争取东盟的支持,积极对接和补充以《东盟印太展望》为导向的海洋事务治理规则,推动区域海洋议题“东盟化”;另一方面,中美海洋议题竞争冲击了东盟的议程设置权,使其在主权敏感议题以及大国构建的平台中可能陷入被边缘化的困境。但要注意到,中美设计的区域海洋秩序,若要获得广泛支持或替代现有秩序,需要被合法化为对现有区域架构的实际或重要补充。面对愈发严峻的海洋形势,东盟应保持中立、审慎对待美国“印太化”海洋议题的立场,并充分利用自身优势推进区域多边主义,强化“东盟中心地位”。

As"Indo-Pacific"maritime issues evolve,both China and the United States support"ASEAN centrality."While so the two powers use their own respective platforms to engage in competition over maritime issues in the region,China leveraging its"Belt and Road Initiative"partnership network in this regard,while the U.S.leverages the"Indo-Pacific"maritime alliance system as the basis for its competitive interactions.On one hand,due to competitive pressure,China and the U.S.actively align around and supplement maritime governance rules guided by the"ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific"to compete for ASEAN's support,promoting the"ASEAN-ization"of regional maritime issues.On the other hand,competition between China and the U.S.over maritime issues has impacted ASEAN's authority over the regional agenda,generating the potential for it to be marginalized vis-à-vis sensitive issues with implications for sovereignty within international platforms constructed by major powers.While so,it is important to note that any regional maritime order designed by China or the U.S.must gain legitimacy as a practical or significant supplement to the existing regional architecture in order to gain widespread support and replace the existing order.Faced with an increasingly challenging maritime situation,ASEAN should maintain its neutrality,adopt a cautious stance towards America's"Indo-Pacific"strategy vis-à-vis maritime issues,and fully utilize its own advantages to promote regional multilateralism and strengthen"ASEAN centrality."