东北地区大豆扩种政策市场效果与风险防范研究

Market Effect and Risk Prevention of Policies for Expanding Soybean Cultivation in Northeast China

近年来,我国实施了新一轮大豆扩种政策。在一系列“超常规”措施推动下,2022年大豆产量大幅增加。但通过对东北地区的调研发现,大豆价格高开低走,豆农收益低于预期,在国储和省储的助力下,产销衔接基本平稳;但本地大豆加工企业开工率低,农户种植大豆的积极性不高。在大豆和玉米“双短缺”的背景下,进一步扩种大豆的风险和挑战加剧,需要引起高度重视。为此,扩种大豆政策不能仅在种植环节发力,更需要在整个产业链上协同推进,构建长效政策机制。在稳存量、增储备、促加工的发展思路基础上,应通过扩种速度缓一些、收储规模增一些、加工转化多一些来化解相应风险。

In recent years,China has implemented a new round of policies for expanding soybean cultiva⁃tion.The implementation of unconventional measures remarkably increased the soybean production in 2022.However,the survey in northeast China suggests that the soybean price declined,and the income of soybean farmers does not reach expectation.With the assistance of national and provincial reserves,the production and sales of soybean has kept balance.However,the local soybean processing enterprises showcase a low rate of operation,and farmers present low enthusiasm for planting soybean.In the context of the dual shortage of soy⁃bean and maize,the risks and challenges of further expanding soybean cultivation have intensified and needed special attention.Therefore,the policies for expanding soybean cultivation should focus on not only planting but also the whole industrial chain to exert long-term effects.According to the development strategy of stabiliz⁃ing stock,increasing reserves,and promoting processing,the corresponding risks should be addressed by slow⁃ing down the expansion,increasing the collection and storage,and promoting the processing and transforma⁃tion.