双碳背景下广西城市能源碳排放影响因素分析

An Analysis of Urban Energy Carbon Emissions Influencing Factors in Guangxi Under the Background of“Dual-Carbon”Objectives

基于STIRPAT扩展模型和2000—2020年广西各类能源消费数据,通过IPCC清单法计算广西能源消费碳排放,定量分析广西能源消费碳排放与城市化水平、能源消费结构、经济发展水平、产业结构、对外开放程度、人口密度、公路总里程数、环境规制投入、国内外旅游人数之间的关系,通过岭回归拟合后发现,这些影响因子每增加1%,将引起广西能源消费碳排放相应增加0.486%,-0.035%,0.134%,0.242%,-0.005%,0.001%,0.265%,0.058%,0.09%。

Based on the STIRPAT extended model and various energy consumption data of Guangxi from 2000 to 2020,energy consumption carbon emissions in Guangxi can be calculated by using the IPCC inventory method,followed by a quantitative analysis of the relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions in Guangxi and its urbanization level,energy consumption structure,economic development level,industrial structure,degree of openness,population density,total highway mileage,environmental regulation input,and domestic and foreign tourist numbers.Based on a ridge regression fitting simulation,it is found that for every 1%increase in these influencing factors,energy consumption carbon emissions in Guangxi will correspondingly increase by 0.486%,-0.035%,0.134%,0.242%,-0.005%,0.001%,0.265%,0.058%and 0.09%respectively.