现代经济学的科学范式与中国潜能

The Scientific Paradigm of Modern Economics and Its Potential in China

现代经济学的研究重心在于“是什么样的”实证问题,而非“应当是什么样的”规范问题。作为分析工具,它对人类社会经济生活是如何做出预测的?它的科学范式受到了哪些质疑?又有哪些可能的回应?本文概述现代经济学的科学范式,通过简单例子说明,我们可以怎样应用该范式预测行为(即选择)、推导规律,再实证检验;再通过牛顿力学等学科类比,介绍相关争议与可能的回应。现代经济学在中国具有理论发展与应用落地的巨大潜能,本文推介三个方向:市场设计、行为与实验经济学、结构计量经济学。

Modern mainstream economics focus on the positive questions of“what is”rather than the normative questions of“what ought to be”.As an analytical tool,how does it make predictions about human social and economic life?What criticisms does it face?What are the possible responses?This paper first sketches the scientific paradigm of modern mainstream economics:through simple examples,we demonstrate how to adopt the paradigm to predict behaviors(choices),deduce regularities,and test hypothesis empirically;through comparisons with disciplines such as Newtonian Physics,we list some pertinent challenges to the paradigm and potential responses.In China,mainstream economics has great potentials in fostering theoretical developments and practical applications,and this paper promotes three fields of study:market design,behavioral and experimental economics,and structural econometrics.