铜瓦厢改道后黄河新河道决溢的时空分布规律初探

Preliminary study on the spatiotemporal distribution of the Yellow River's new channel overflow after the diversion at Tongwaxiang

历史时期黄河下游决溢泛滥造成的灾害影响研究,属于全球环境变化与区域响应研究的重要议题范围。1855年铜瓦厢决口以后黄河新河道流经豫、直、鲁三省入渤海,沿河两岸决溢灾害频发,重塑了黄河新泛区的自然与人文环境。基于多源史料建立1855—1949年间黄河下游决溢基础数据库,运用数理统计、核密度估计、小波分析等方法,揭示出该研究时段黄河新河道决溢的时空变化特征及演变规律。研究发现,黄河新河道决溢范围波及50个县,总次数为539次,年均7.59次;在时间尺度上,决溢次数呈现先增长后减少的趋势,存在20年、59年两类时间尺度上的显著变化周期;在空间尺度上,决溢受灾县在新河道两岸呈现分散-聚集-大分散小聚集的空间分布规律,决溢重心有从上段到下段、再从下段到上段的变化规律;新河道的形成演变、两岸地形特点、堤防修筑以及人为决堤等是影响黄河决溢地点变化的主要因素。

The study of the disaster impact caused by the overflow of the lower reaches of Yellow River in historical periods is a critical topic in global environmental change and regional response research.Following the Tongwaxiang breach in 1855,the new Yellow River channel flowed through Henan,Hebei,and Shandong provinces into the Bohai Sea.Flood disasters frequently occurred along the riverbanks,reshaping the natural and cultural environment of the newly flooded areas.Based on multi-source historical materials,a comprehensive database of Yellow River overflows from 1855 to 1949 was established.Using mathematical statistics,kernel density estimation,wavelet analysis,and other methods,the study reveals the spatiotemporal variations and evolution of the Yellow River's new channel overflows during this period.The study found that the Yellow River's new channel overflow affected 50 counties,occurring 539 times in total,with an average of 7.59 overflows per year.Temporally,the number of overflows initially increased and then decreased,showing significant cycles of change on 20-year and 59-year scales.Spatially,the affected counties exhibited a pattern of dispersion-aggregation-large dispersion and small aggregation on both banks of the new channel.The overflow center of gravity shifted from the upper section to the lower section and then back to the upper section.The formation and evolution of the new channel,the terrain characteristics on both banks,the construction of embankments,and artificial breaches were the main factors influencing the changes in the location of Yellow River overflows.