国际货币体系发展新趋势与人民币国际化的未来

New trends in the development of the international monetary system and the future of RMB internationalization

2008年全球金融危机之后,美国一轮接一轮的超发货币和一次又一次的对外金融制裁严重打击了美元信誉,美国为了维持美元霸权开始构筑金融领域的“小院高墙”,广大发展中国家则兴起了“去美元化”浪潮,国际货币体系加速演变。展望未来,目前的以单一主权货币为中心的国际货币体系终将式微,本币结算会异军突起;美元、欧元、人民币等主权货币甚至黄金都可能发挥通用货币职能,超主权货币取得突破的难度依然很大。当前的国际货币体系变革使人民币国际化面临地缘政治逆风,传统主权货币国际化路线受阻,但美元式微也为人民币提供了窗口期,人民币国际化可以走出新路径。我国需要坚持人民币国际化战略选择,营造良好外部环境,融入本币结算新趋势,推动黄金货币化,提前谋划超主权货币。

After the 2008 global financial crisis,the United States’successive rounds of over-issuance of currency and repeated external financial sanctions severely damaged the credibility of the US dollar.In order to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar,the United States began to build“Small Yard,High Fence”in the financial field,and broad development China is embarking on a wave of“de-dollarization”and the international monetary system is accelerating its evolution.Looking to the future,the current international monetary system centered on a single sovereign currency will eventually decline,and local currency settlement will suddenly emerge;sovereign currencies such as the US dollar,the euro,the Renminbi,and even gold may all function as universal currencies,and it is still very difficult for super-sovereign currencies to make breakthroughs.The current reform of the international monetary system has caused the internationalization of the RMB to face geopolitical headwinds,and the internationalization of the traditional sovereign currency has been blocked,but the weak US dollar has also provided a window period for the RMB,and the internationalization of the RMB can take a new path.China needs to adhere to the strategic choice of RMB internationalization,create a good external environment,integrate into the new trend of local currency settlement,promote the monetization of gold,and plan a super-sovereign currency in advance.