结合Prophet-CNN模型的多轨时序InSAR矿区三维形变监测预警

Multi-track sequential InSAR mining 3D deformation monitoring and prediction combined with Prophet-CNN model

绝大多数矿区由于矿床的地质条件及特殊的采矿方式,推进开采容易引发矿区地质应力失衡,造成不同程度的变形破坏。为探究采矿活动下大红山矿区地表稳定性,本文通过对覆盖大红山矿区2021—2023年的三轨SAR影像进行联合解算矿区三维形变场,分析矿区形变特征;在此基础上,运用Prophet-CNN模型对形变时序进行训练,构建形变预测模型对矿区的三维形变趋势并进行预测;结果表明,矿区在开采活动的影响下地表持续发生形变,形变主要分布于硝水箐—南部废石场、露天采区及铜矿采区,最大垂直形变速率为-51.22 mm/a;采用Prophet-CNN组合模型对矿区地表三维形变进行时序预测,3个方向预测结果的RMSE与MAE分别在2.90和1.85 mm以下,充分证明了本文方法能够运用于矿区沉降趋势预测,为防灾减灾工作提供技术依据。

Due to the geological conditions and special mining methods of the mineral deposits,most mining areas are prone to cause the imbalance of geological stress in mining areas,resulting in different degrees of deformation and failure.In order to explore the surface stability of Dahongshan mining area under mining activities,the three-dimensional deformation field of Dahongshan mining area is calculated by combining the three-track SAR images covering the area from 2021 to 2023,and the deformation characteristics of the mining area are analyzed.On this basis,the Prophet-CNN model is used to train the deformation time series,and the deformation prediction model is built to predict the three-dimensional deformation trend of the mining area.The results show that the surface deformation occurs continuously under the influence of mining activities,and the deformation is mainly distributed in Xiaoshuiqing southern waste rock field,open-pit mining area and copper mining area,and the maximum vertical deformation rate is-51.22 mm/a.The Prophet-CNN combined model is used to predict the 3D surface deformation in the mining area in time series,and the RMSE and MAE of the prediction results in the three directions are below 2.90 and 1.85 mm,respectively,which fully indicated that the proposed method could be applied to the prediction of the subsidence trend in the mining area and provide technical basis for disaster prevention and reduction.