“双循环”新发展格局下河南省消费提振策略研究

A RESEARCH ON CONSUMPTION BOOSTING STRATEGIES IN HENAN PROVINCE UNDER THE NEW DEVELOPMENT PATTERN OF“DUAL CIRCULATION”

在分析和梳理近年来河南省居民消费现状的基础上,建立面板双向固定效应模型实证研究河南省居民消费支出的各种影响因素,结果显示:河南省城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、物价水平、政府支出规模显著正向促进了河南省城镇居民家庭人均消费支出的增长,河南省农村居民家庭人均可支配收入显著正向促进了河南省农村居民家庭人均消费支出的增长,而模型中其他变量对河南省居民家庭消费支出的影响有限。结合实证结果和河南省实际提出以下建议以提振河南省居民消费:即采取多种措施,切实提高居民收入水平;加大补贴力度,增加政府促消费的措施;优化公共服务,加大政府福利性支出力度;进一步适度扩大进口规模,满足居民消费的多样性等。

On the basis of analyzing and sorting out the current consumption situation of residents in Henan Province in recent years,a panel bidirectional fixed effect model is established to empirically study various influencing factors of residents’consumption expenditure in Henan Province.The results show that the per capita disposable income,price level,and government expenditure scale of urban households in Henan Province significantly and positively promote the growth of per capita consumption expenditure of urban households in Henan Province,the per capita disposable income of rural households in Henan Province significantly and positively promotes the growth of per capita consumption expenditure of rural households in Henan Province.However,the impact of other variables in the model on household consumption expenditure in Henan Province is limited.Basing on the empirical results and the actual situation in Henan Province,the paper proposes the following policy recommendations:taking various measures to effectively improve the income level of residents,increasing subsidies and government promotional fees,optimizing public services and increasing government welfare expenditures,further moderately expanding the scale of imports and meeting the diversity of residents’consumption and etc.to boost residents’consumption in Henan Province.