考虑城市中央商务区规划阶段负荷不确定性的综合能源系统供能结构研究

Energy supply structure research of integrated energy systems considering load uncertainty during planning phases of city's central business districts

在考虑机组最小负载率的基础上建立了各机组的约束条件,分别以经济性和环保性为目标构建了优化模型,研究了负荷不确定性对系统供能结构的影响。从概率的角度对规划阶段建筑群的负荷不确定性进行了描述,并应用场景分析法将已知概率分布的随机问题转化为便于求解计算的确定性问题。考虑负荷不确定性后,系统总的容量增大7%,运行费用增加2%,系统年总投资增加4%。对比经济性与环保性目标优化结果,分析了系统运行和供能结构配置产生差异的原因。

On the basis of considering the minimum load factor of the unit,the constraints for each unit are established,and the optimization model is constructed with the goals of economic and environmental protection objectives to investigate the impact of load uncertainty on the system energy supply structure.From the perspective of probability,the load uncertainty of the building complex in the planning phase is described,and the scenario analysis method is applied to transform the stochastic problem with known probability distribution into a deterministic problem that is convenient for solving and calculation.After considering the load uncertainty,the overall system capacity increases by 7%,the operation cost increases by 2%,and the annual investment of the system increases by 4%.Comparing the optimization results of economic and environmental protection objectives,the reasons for the differences in system operation and energy supply structure configuration are analysed in this paper.