经济制裁对两岸价值链关联的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Economic Sanctions on Cross-Strait Value Chain Linkages

文章运用亚洲开发银行的多区域投入产出表数据,测算经济体价值链关联、经济体生产距离和销售距离,在此基础上实证检验了经济制裁对价值链关联的影响,并基于“台湾地区—内地—美国”三角贸易,考察了美国经济制裁对三角贸易和两岸价值链关联的影响。结果表明,两岸价值链关联不断深化,经济体在GVC活动中的生产和销售并未出现明显的“近岸”特征;经济制裁对经济体价值链关联具有显著的负向作用;聚焦于三角贸易,美国经济制裁显著降低了美国与中国内地和台湾地区的价值链关联,并且促进了两岸价值链融合。最后,文章从创新驱动机制提升两岸价值链关联、以两岸携手嵌入内地内循环应对经济制裁、两岸携手开拓外部市场塑造新型贸易关系等方面提出了相应政策建议。

Based on the data of ADB Multiregional Input-Output Database,this paper empirically examines the impact of economic sanctions on value chain linkages,and examines the impact of US economic sanctions on the triangular trade and cross-Strait value chain linkages based on the“Taiwan,China-Chinese mainland-US”triangular trade.The results show that the cross-Strait value chain linkages are deepening,and the production and sales of GVC activities do not show obvious“near-shoring”characteristics.Economic sanctions have a significantly negative effect on the value chain linkages between economies.Focusing on triangular trade,US economic sanctions significantly reduce the value chain linkages between the United States and Chinese mainland,and between the United States and Taiwan,China and promote cross-Strait value chain integration.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of enhancing cross-Strait value chain linkage through the innovation-driven mechanism,embedding cross-Strait into the internal circulation of the mainland to deal with economic sanctions,and working together to explore the external market and shape a new type of trade relationship.