深圳轨道交通列车增购方案研究

Purchase of Shenzhen Rail Transit Trains

轨道交通列车数量直接影响着列车运营组织效率的发挥,更影响着乘客服务水平。为保证轨道交通运能运量的合理匹配,需定期组织轨道交通列车增购研究。通过分析对比模型法、趋势外推法、工程可行性研究推算法等预测方法,选取一种适应轨道交通客流变化特征的预测方法进行客流预测,根据客流预测结果对增购车数量进行测算。以深圳市轨道交通为例,根据选取的客流预测方法进行了客流预测,并制定列车增购方案,指导轨道交通科学高效运营。

The number of rail transit trains directly affects the efficiency of train operation organization and also affects the level of passenger service.To ensure the reasonable matching of rail transit capacity and volume,it is necessary to regularly organize research on the purchase of rail transit trains.The prediction methods such as model method,trend extrapolation method,and feasibility study calculation method are analyzed and compared,and a prediction method is selected that adapts to the characteristics of rail transit passenger flow changes for passenger flow prediction.Based on the results of passenger flow prediction,the number of newly purchased vehicles is calculated.Taking Shenzhen rail transit as an example,passenger flow prediction is conducted based on the selected passenger flow prediction method,and a train purchase plan is formulated to guide the scientific and efficient operation of rail transit.