盈利、融资、主动偿债与房地产业风险——基于上市公司信用利差的面板数据实证分析

Profitability,Financing Capacity,Solvency and Credit Risk of Real Estate Firms

以135家上市房地产企业2017年至2021年的财务数据和发行债券的到期收益率为样本,利用时间和个体固定效应模型实证研究了房地产企业信用利差的影响因素。研究结果表明,房地产企业的信用利差受公司盈利能力、融资能力和偿债主动性指标影响;盈利能力、融资能力越强、偿债积极性越高,企业的信用利差越小。杠杆水平和长短期偿债能力直接导致公司债券违约的指标对信用利差的影响不显著;而公司是否违约对信用利差的影响高度显著、影响强度大。

The sample of the study is the financial data and bond maturity yields of 135 listed real estate companies from 2017 to 2021.The results of the study show that:credit spreads of real estate companies are mainly influenced by the profitability,financing ability and solvency of the companies.Profitability,financing ability and debt servicing ability are negatively correlated with the credit spreads of the companies.Indicators that directly lead to corporate bond defaults,such as leverage level,have a small impact on credit spreads.Defaults have a significant impact on credit spreads,indicating that public investors are hindsight on corporate credit risk and the function of China's credit evaluation system needs to be further enhanced.