我国建制镇镇区人口规模特征及影响因素研究

Research on the Population Size Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Administrative Township in China

在乡村振兴过程中,明确“镇”的规模特征及空间格局,厘清其影响因素,对制定乡村振兴路径、推进新型城镇化战略具有重要参考价值。本文在梳理我国“建制镇”设置标准及“镇人口”统计标准基础上,揭示当前我国1.81万个建制镇镇区人口的规模特征、区域差异及影响因素。研究表明,2017年我国建制镇镇区平均规模为1.45万人,县城镇平均规模(4.93万)远大于区辖镇(2.14万)、县级市辖镇(1.41万)及县辖一般镇(0.88万)。特大镇、大型镇、中型镇、小型镇的数量占比分别为6.18%、5.10%、22.21%、66.51%,人口总量占比分别为41.5%、13.4%、25.8%、19.3%,此外共有“巨型镇”324个,“微型镇”2746个。结合热点分析,可认为小型镇数量多,但人口向特大镇、东南沿海发达地区集聚的特征非常明显。自然和社会经济因素共同影响镇规模,但县城镇和非县城镇影响因素存在异质性。研究认为,我国镇规模差异明显,应加强镇的行政建制研究,关注镇人口集聚能力的类型和区域差异,分类分区施策推进新型城镇化建设。

In the context of rural revitalization,elucidating the scale characteristics and spatial configurations of'towns',coupled with a thorough exploration of its determinants,holds paramount significance for devising strategies for rural revitalization and advancing the paradigm of new urbanization.Building upon the established standards for designating'administrative towns'and the statistical benchmarks for'town population'in China,this study endeavors to unveil the demographic scale attributes,regional differentials,and determinants of the 18,100 administrative towns across the nation.The empirical findings underscore that,as of 2017,the mean population size of administrative towns in China was 14,500,with a conspicuous disparity evident between county towns(average of 49,300),district-administered towns(21,400),county-level city-administered towns(14,100),and general towns under county administration(8,800).The distribution of towns based on size reveals proportions of 6.18%for superlarge towns,5.10%for large towns,22.21%for medium towns,and 66.51%for small towns.Correspondingly,the population proportions were 41.5%,13.4%,25.8%,and 19.3%.Furthermore,the landscape encompasses 324'giant towns'and 2,746'micro towns'.A nuanced analysis underscores that while small towns are numerous,the population exhibits a pronounced predilection for aggregating in super-large towns,particularly within the prosperous southeastern coastal regions.A synthesis of natural and socio-economic factors collectively influences town size,albeit with notable heterogeneity in the determinants between county seat towns and their non-county seat counterparts.This study underscores the imperative for nuanced strategies,accounting for town typologies and regional variations,to propel the objectives of new urbanization efficaciously.