县域国土空间用途结构模拟与低碳优化研究——以陕西省渭南市澄城县为例

Research on Simulation and Low-carbon Optimization of County Land Space Use Structure:Taking Chengcheng County,Weinan City,Shaanxi Province as an Example

国土空间用途结构优化是实现城镇低碳绿色高质量发展的重要途径之一。文章以陕西省渭南市澄城县为例,估算并分析2011—2020年的碳排放量,利用Markov-PLUS模型模拟自然发展情景下2025年的国土空间用途结构,并构建多目标规划模型,以经济利益最大化、碳排放最小化、生态效益最大化为目标函数,对所模拟的国土空间用途结构进行优化研究。研究结果表明:1)澄城县碳排放量呈先增后减再增的趋势,近10年碳排放量峰值为84.8170万t。2)模拟自然情况下2025年澄城县碳排放量将达到73.6808万t。3)通过优化,只考虑碳排放效益,对比优化前2025年碳排放量可减少1.0991万t,生态效益增加4954万元;统筹考虑碳排放效益、经济效益与生态效益,对比优化前2025年碳排放量仅减少5578t,但经济效益和生态效益分别增加9098万元和346万元。基于此提出以低碳为目标的国土空间用途结构优化策略。

Optimization of land space use structure is one of the important ways to achieve low-carbon,green,and high-quality urban development.Taking Chengcheng County,Weinan City,Shaanxi Province as an example,the carbon emissions from 2011 to 2020 are estimated and analyzed,the Markov-PLUS model is used to simulate the land space use structure in 2025 under the natural development scenario,and a multi-objective planning model is constructed,taking the maximization of economic benefits,carbon emission minimization,and ecological benefit as the objective functions,and the simulated land space use structure is optimized and studied.The results show that:1)Chengcheng County's carbon emissions show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing and then increasing,with a peak carbon emission of 848,170 tons in the past 10 years.2)Under simulated natural conditions,the carbon emissions of Chengcheng County will reach 736,808 tons in 2025.3)Through optimization,only considering carbon emission benefits,carbon emissions can be reduced by 10,991 tons and ecological benefits increased by 49.54 million yuan in 2025 before optimization.Carbon emission benefits,economic benefits,and ecological benefits can be considered comprehensively,carbon emissions in 2025 will only be reduced by 5,578 tons,but economic benefits and ecological benefits will increase by 90.98 million yuan and 3.46 million yuan respectively.On this basis,a low-carbon optimization strategy for land and space use structure is proposed.