气候变化对山东茶区黑刺粉虱虫害分布的影响及未来变化趋势研究

Study on the Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution and Future Change of Aleurocanthus spiniferus(Quaintanca)Infestation in Tea Area of Shandong Province

以山东茶区最具代表性的茶园虫害黑刺粉虱为研究对象,基于2050年未来气候尺度和3个未来气候场景(RCP26、RCP45、RCP85),采用MaxEnt物种分布模型,通过实际调查和查阅文献获取山东茶区黑刺粉虱分布样点数据,结合世界气候数据平台截取山东茶区的19个气候变量和8个土壤环境因子进行建模。根据野外调查和模型预测结果,在中低适宜区建议林茶间作;在中高适宜区建议创新、推广智能声技术;在高适宜区尤其应该加强当地造林苗木的源头管理。

Precisely predicting the distribution of Aleurocanthus spiniferus(Quaintanca)infestations in tea areas under changing climate is currently a research focus.In this study,based on the most representative tea garden pest,the black thorn aphid,in Shandong tea area,and using the MaxEnt species distribution model and three future climate scenarios(RCP26,RCP45,RCP85)for the year 2050,actual investigation and literature data were used to obtain sample data on the distribution of Aleurocanthus spiniferus(Quaintanca)in Shandong tea area,and 19 climate variables and 8 soil environmental factors were modeled by cutting from the world climate data platform for the Shandong tea area.Based on field surveys and model predictions,intercropping of tea and forests is recommended in the low and medium suitability areas,innovative and intelligent sound technology should be promoted in the mediumhigh suitability areas,and the source management of local afforestation seedlings should be strengthened in the high suitability areas.