中国数字乡村发展统计测度与时空异质性研究

Statistical measurement and spatial-temporal heterogeneity of digital rural development in China

中国政府积极推动着数字技术与乡村发展融合发展的数字乡村建设。引入因果推断方法研究影响因素对数字乡村建设在不同时期中的平均处理效应(ATE)的重要程度,并通过构建空间杜宾模型对其时空特征与溢出效应进行探析。研究表明:第一,科技创新水平对数字乡村建设的影响,由前期的负向作用(ATE=-1.908)转为后期的正向作用(ATE=1.936),后期中低科技创新水平地区的ATC>ATT,说明中低科技创新水平地区创新效果会优于科技创新水平高的地区;第二,数字乡村发展具有较强的时间积累性,受到经济要素流动等影响,呈现出明显的“棘轮效应”特征和空间依赖性,本地科技创新水平、产业结构升级将对本地数字乡村发展产生正面影响,邻近地区的科技创新水平、产业结构升级对本地数字乡村发展并未产生实际影响。由此可见,加强数字化农业技术创新供给能力、稳步推进产业结构升级对中国数字乡村的区域协调发展具有重要意义。

The Chinese government actively promotes the construction of digital villages that integrate digital technology and rural development.This paper introduces causal inference method to study the importance of influencing factors to the average treatment effect(ATE)of digital rural construction in different periods.This paper constructs a spatial Dubin model to analyze its spatial and temporal characteristics and spillover effects.The research shows that:First,the impact of scientific and technological innovation level on digital rural construction has changed from the negative effect of the previous stage(ATE=-1.908)to the positive effect of the later stage(ATE=1.936);in the later stage,ATC>ATT in the regions with low and medium technological innovation level,indicating that the innovation effect of the regions with low and medium technological innovation level will be better than that of the regions with high technological innovation level.Secondly,the development of digital villages has a strong time accumulation,showing obvious’ratchet effect’characteristics;the development level of digital villages is affected by the flow of economic factors and thus forms obvious spatial dependence and spatial spillover effects;the level of local scientific and technological innovation and the upgrading of industrial structure will have a positive impact on the development of local digital villages.The level of scientific and technological innovation and the upgrading of industrial structure in neighboring areas have no actual impact on the development of local digital villages.It can be seen that strengthening the supply capacity of digital agricultural technology innovation and steadily promoting the upgrading of industrial structure are of great significance to the regional coordinated development of digital villages in China.